30 June, 2009
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South Africa coach Mickey Arthur makes Australia slight favourites for the Ashes, but has pinpointed England pair Andrew Flintoff and Graeme Swann as potential series changers.
Arthur, who has led the Proteas to Test series wins over both sides, thinks Ricky Ponting has the stronger batting line-up at his disposal, something he sees as potentially decisive.
"I fancy Australia's top six batsmen over England's and the Aussies' line-up that I expect them to pick gives them great batting depth," Arthur said in an article for the August edition of the Wisden Cricketer.
"The bowling attacks look pretty even, with England having the edge in the spin department. I'm loath to make a prediction because I think it will be really tight but, on the basis of where England are in their development, I would just go for Australia."
"It's a really tough series to call. England are heading in the right direction."
Yet Arthur also sees match-winners in the home camp, with Lancashire all-rounder Flintoff potentially the key - provided he is used correctly.
"We felt Andrew Flintoff bowled too negatively against South Africa last summer. I'd like to see him used as a more attacking option because he has the ability to do that," said Arthur.
"I would like to see Flintoff given the licence to attack along with James Anderson, whom we rated very highly when we faced him last year, while Stuart Broad is used as more of a control bowler, who will make the batsmen play and probe away around off stump."
He added: "I've been very impressed with Graeme Swann, who has convinced me there can be a future for the orthodox off-spinner in Test cricket, contrary to popular belief."
"He likes to bowl an attacking line which means he might go for more runs but he will take wickets, especially against the left-handers in Australia's top order. At the moment he is a better option than Monty Panesar, who had no variation against us in 2008."
Arthur, who was one of the names tipped as a potential replacement for Peter Moores as England coach before Andy Flower's appointment, is excited by the development of Ravi Bopara at No.3 but believes the top order will be pushed to the limit.
"England have been bold and made some proper decisions with selection - bringing in Ravi Bopara at three and deciding on a five-man bowling attack with Matt Prior batting at six."
"There has been total clarity and no room for confusion. Players cannot say they don't know where they stand."
"My concern, though, is that in their quest to take 20 wickets they have put a huge amount of pressure on their five main batters."
"I was impressed with what I saw of Bopara against West Indies but he's still relatively untried and there is a huge amount of pressure on Kevin Pietersen. If Australia use the new ball well, then they could put the England top order under a lot of pressure."