History suggests coin toss conundrum at the Basin

As a student of history in addition to holding a Bachelor of Business, Pat Cummins will be aware of the Basin Reserve's unique reputation prior to tomorrow morning's coin toss for the opening Test against New Zealand.

The truism 'if you win the toss, nine times out of 10 you bat first, and on the tenth you consider bowling then opt to bat' seems to carry an historic caveat '*unless you're playing at the Basin'.

Despite its statistical evidence suggesting it's a batter-friendly surface, the striking green hue that characterises pitches at New Zealand's oldest remaining Test venue continually convinces skippers who are successful at the toss to bowl first.

The past 15 Tests in Wellington, stretching back to 2011, have seen teams sent in on the first morning with a majority of those results (eight occasions) falling in favour of the team asked to bat first.

With the track for the first of two Tests on this series sporting a distinctly emerald tinge when the covers were peeled back this afternoon following a morning of persistent rain in the national capital, it's easy to understand the belief that bowling first offers the quickest path to 20 wickets.

But the two most recent Tests at the historic ground, which is encircled by busy roads and regularly buffeted by howling winds, offer a cautionary tale of which Cummins and his fellow fast bowler and captaincy counterpart Tim Southee will be surely mindful.

The Basin hosted two Test matches last summer, the first of those against former NZ hero Brendon McCullum's England in the early days of their Bazball crusade and, having been asked to bat first, the visitors duly blazed 8(dec)-435 from 87.1 overs after which NZ were forced to follow-on.

The Black Caps snuck home by one run in that memorable encounter, but the lesson was not learned by Sri Lanka skipper Dimuth Karunaratne when he called correctly for the subsequent Test three weeks later after which the grateful hosts piled on 4(dec)-580 and strolled to an innings victory.

Cummins has shown a preparedness to flout captaincy's first law, having sent his opponents five times from his 26 outings as skipper to date, the most recent coming against the West Indies at Adelaide Oval last month.

"Of course it's a live option," he said at today's pre-game media conference when asked if bowling first might be on his radar.

"I think coming from Australia it's rare to turn on the TV and see a green wicket that looks like the (surrounding) turf, but over here it's pretty normal.

"But I don't think it's as scary as it looks.

"It seems like there's been plenty of first innings scores that have been big, I think the range of first-innings scores goes from 120 to 580.

"We'll have a look tomorrow and make up our mind then."

The low watermark to which Cummins referred was West Indies' paltry 134 in 2017 when they were put to the sword by left-arm seamer Neil Wagner (7-39) before NZ's batters showed the true nature of the Basin pitch by scoring 9(dec)-520.

Indeed, the average first innings score across those 15 Tests since a skipper last won a toss and had a bat has been 340. Only two teams – England last year, and Bangladesh in 2017 when they scored 595 – have posted totals above that median and ended up on the losing side.

Another reason Cummins might choose to flout convention and bat first if the coin lands his way tomorrow morning is the sage advice in the dressing room coming from former NZ allrounder (now Australia assistant coach) Daniel Vettori.

It's Vettori who can lay claim to being the most recent skipper to undertake the bold ploy at the Basin having decided to bat when he was Black Caps captain against Pakistan in 2011.

He surely harboured misgivings about the decision as his team slumped to 6-180 late on the opening day before the skipper posted the last of his six Test centuries to haul them to safety and an eventual draw.

"He's always got good insights, he's played a lot here – windy days, not windy days, different wickets," Cummins said of Vettori's influence on this Qantas tour.

"Nothing probably ground-breaking but I think that wind factor can be real here, and just some of the ideas on how to get through that."

Vettori was the last specialist bowler to captain NZ in Tests until Southee took over from Kane Williamson (and interim skipper Tom Latham) in 2022.

Boasting an unblemished captaincy record at the Basin after NZ's back-to-back wins last summer, Southee knows the perils that accompany sending opponents into bat there as his success rate would be down to 50 per cent if Wagner had not knocked over last man James Anderson with England needing two to win.

"There's been a number of high scores if you look over the first innings in Test matches played here," Southee said today.

"It's got a green tinge to it but it usually plays a pretty good surface and we've seen that with sides losing the toss and being put in and putting scores on the board.

"I'd imagine it's going to be a pretty good surface over the five days."

Asked if he would consider continuing the trend by bowling first upon winning the toss, Southee replied: "I guess we'll find out tomorrow at 10.30."

One weapon he won't have at his disposal during this Test campaign is Wagner, whose announcement yesterday to call time on his international career after learning he would not be selected at either Wellington or Christchurch caught the Australians off guard.

Wagner's news came shortly after the visitors wrapped up their main pre-Test training session yesterday morning, during which every batter had undergone practice against short-pitched bowling in the expectation the left-armer would target them with his trademark bouncer barrage.

Cummins, who is yet to play a Test on NZ's verdant turf, claimed he and his brains trust expected Wagner to play a role in the two-match series and paid tribute to the indefatigable warrior who became best known in Australia as Steve Smith's scourge.

"He's been a wonderful competitor whenever we've played him over the years," Cummins said today.

"Seeing the way he's created problems for batters in a non-traditional way, I've really admired from afar."

Australia's top-order batters also found problems against rookie Test bowlers Aamir Jamal (Pakistan) and Shamar Joseph (West Indies) this summer, and Cummins indicated they would undertake diligent research before facing NZ's newly capped quick Will O'Rourke who captured nine wickets in his debut Test against South Africa earlier this month.

But Australia's skipper is also feeling a freshness that was lacking at the end of the Test series in Australia, which brought the culmination of a gruelling 12 months.

Following that, Cummins took a break from white-ball duties in Australia and captaincy as Mitchell Marsh and his deputy Matthew Wade took over the T20 team in games at Wellington and Auckland last week.

"I really enjoyed it, with Marshy and Wadey taking up the reins I felt like I could just be a player," Cummins said today, reflecting on Australia's 3-0 success over the Black Caps in the 20-over format.

"On the field, just worrying about your own skills solely – especially in a format I haven't played for a while – was good.

"And then away from the ground as well, things like media or some of the team meetings you have around planning, they do add up.

"Not that they're necessarily taxing by themselves but they do add up, so just having that space outside the game was nice for a couple of weeks.

"But in the same breath, it's good to be back here in a different role." 

Qantas Tour of New Zealand

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February 29 – March 4: First Test, Wellington, 9am AEDT

March 8-12: Second Test, Christchurch, 9am AEDT

Australia Test squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Michael Neser, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith (vc), Mitchell Starc

New Zealand Test squad: Tim Southee (c), Tom Blundell (wk), Devon Conway, Matt Henry, Scott Kuggeleijn, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Will O'Rourke, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mitchell Santner, Neil Wagner, Kane Williamson, Will Young.