India trying to create their own history

If Test matches were decided on the basis of historic statistical data, then the touring Indian team could justifiably consider skipping the second match against Australia in Brisbane and head straight to Melbourne to prepare for the Boxing Day encounter.

After all, Australia hasn’t lost a Test at the Gabba in new captain Steve Smith’s lifetime.

What’s more, in the recent past India has travelled about as successfully as ice cream in a car boot on a summer’s afternoon.

And having briefly courted the prospect of victory at Adelaide Oval where the prevailing conditions were likely to be the most familiar they’ll encounter, India find themselves transplanted to fast bowler-friendly Brisbane where they haven’t won a Test since … well, they haven’t won one at all.

But in a sure sign that India are anything but a defeated unit having succumbed in the final session of an emotional first Commonwealth Bank Test in Adelaide, captain M S Dhoni announced his return to the fray after injury with some statistical observations of his own.

“Well yes,” Dhoni countered when told that his team would have to create history to return the four-match series to parity in the Gabba Test that starts tomorrow.

“But I’ve been playing Test cricket since 2005, and never played a Test match here (Brisbane).

“The last couple of tours (of Australia) we haven’t played here, we’ve played in Perth.

“So if you talk about stats then what you said is right, but I’m very bad at stats and people feed me with stats and some of the fastest wickets are where we’ve won Test matches – at Jo’burg and at Perth and some of the other venues.

“So it will be a nice challenge for the youngsters, most of the players in the side are very young and it will be a good exposure at international cricket.

“They will learn a lot and hopefully stand up and perform.”

There’s no doubt that the Australian brainstrust has seen what they believe is an opportunity to land a telling blow in the battle for Border-Gavaskar Trophy which India secured with a thumping four-nil series win in India last year.

Faced with a hard Gabba pitch that appears likely to offer up Perth-like bounce and some awkward seam movement on the first morning until the sun starts to sap its life, the Australians have loaded up with tall, aggressive fast bowlers who will make batting uncomfortable for the visitors.

The slight quad strain that rendered Ryan Harris unavailable and the drop in velocity that cost Peter Siddle his place has opened the door for left-arm swing bowler Mitchell Starc, and tall, 23-year-old quick Josh Hazlewood to make his debut as Australia’s 440^th Test cricketer.

And with all-rounders Mitchell Marsh and Shane Watson likely to enjoy the bounce and pace, as well as spinner Nathan Lyon buoyant in the wake of his 12-wicket, man-of-the-match form in Adelaide, new skipper Smith might consider bowling first should the coin land for him in the morning.

“We're in our own conditions again on a wicket that suits our fast bowlers,” Smith said today, when he confirmed Australia’s starting XI as well as the fact he planned to bat himself in the number four vacancy created by Michael Clarke’s injury with Shaun Marsh at five.

“I think that’s part of the reason that Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood have been included in the team, that’s for sure.

“It is traditionally a fast and bouncy wicket and it looks no different out there for this Test match.

“Hopefully after the wickets we’ve played on recently in Test cricket – the Adelaide Oval and the UAE – it’s exciting for our fast bowler to finally have something that has a bit of liveliness to it.

“I’ve watched Josh (Hazlewood) very closely over the last couple of years for New South Wales and he impresses me every time.

“I think he’s only getting better and better, and I think this pitch out here is going to suit him perfectly.

“He’s very skilful for his age and I’m just looking forward to seeing him zing a few through and bowl with that extra bit of pace, and get that extra bit of bounce as well.

“In regards to the inclusion of Mitchell Starc, I think we just wanted to play a bowler with a bit of extra pace and bounce and Mitchell went back and bowled really well for New South Wales in the last couple of (Bupa Sheffield) Shield games and deserves his spot.

“It’s obviously very disappointing for Peter Siddle who has been a terrific bowler over a long period of time, but he’s certainly not out of the loop, he’s still in and around the team and hopefully he’ll get another game soon.”

But Dhoni, who missed the Adelaide Test as he continued his convalescence from a fractured thumb, was not about to take a backward step even though he acknowledged that – with the exception of feisty fast bowler Varun Aaron – his attack is decidedly more medium-fast than vice-versa.

He pointed to the fact that even though India’s record on the road shows just eight series wins away from home over the past decade, some of their best Test match performances have come on the sorts of fast, bouncy pitches that Indian batsmen are supposed to be unqualified to handle.

Dhoni cited the 72-run victory in Perth when his team toured here in 2008, and their similarly unexpected 123-run win at the Wanderers in Johannesburg two years earlier as prime examples.

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In fact, Dhoni claimed that the greener and bouncier the pitch, the greater his team’s chances of bowling out the opposition twice to secure a win, which was one of the stumbling blocks in Adelaide where Australia declared both of their innings.

“More often than not I prefer wickets that are slightly more on the greener side, the reason being our bowlers become much more effective,” he reasoned today.

“And the batsmen will have to formulate a way to get runs on that kind of wicket and if you see the stats then more often than not we have done so on wickets that help the fast bowlers.

“It also makes our job slightly easier to get the opposition batsmen out, that’s where we have struggled to some extent in the last two or three series.

“We have been in positions to win Test matches but we have not been able to really do that.

“It’s a matter of time with a bit more experience this team has the talent to go that extra step, and once it starts going you will see it before better in any conditions.”

In addition to Dhoni reclaiming his position behind the stumps, India is expected to recall off-spinner Ravi Ashwin favour of leg spinner Karn Sharma who made an unspectacular Test debut in Adelaide.

Although his response to today’s queries about the make-up of his starting XI was “you’ll have to wait and see”, Dhoni hinted strongly that the presence of two left-armers in the Australian attack and the footmarks they were destined to create - plus Ashwin’s lower-order batting credentials - tendered a compelling case.

And as an assiduous student of his opponents, the Indian skipper would have also noted the presence of five left-handed batsmen in Australia’s XI as sufficient rationale to include a bowler who spins the ball away.

Throw in the intangible effect of any potential emotional let-down following the draining circumstances that fuelled the Australian players in last week’s series opener, and there are sufficient reasons to suspect the results of the next three Tests are far from predetermined.

Plus there was one more salient statistic that the Indian captain lobbed on the table as his pre-match media conference came to a close, and he was asked what he knew about his newly ordained rival skipper, Steve Smith.

“He backs himself to play the big shots and plays the normal Aussie game – that’s how he plays his cricket so it will be interesting to see him,” Dhoni noted

“Overall, I think with Michael (Clarke) not being there that’s quite a big blow for them.

“Especially if you see the stats – he’s got some very simple stats against us.

“He comes in and scores runs.

“So to some extent it will help us with him not being there.”

Teams

Australia: David Warner, Chris Rogers, Shane Watson, Steve Smith (c), Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood, Peter Siddle (12^th).

India (possible): Murali Vijay, Shikar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, MS Dhoni (c), Ravi Ashwin, Mohammed Shami, Ishant Sharma, Varun Aaron, (12^th man tbc)