Cricket.com.au runs through the various permutations as the World Cup pool stage comes to a close
World Cup quarter-finals explained
It’s business time in the 2015 World Cup, and while some teams will soon be shutting up shop, others will be hoping to keep their doors open well into March.
Australia are guaranteed a quarter-final showdown in Adelaide following their win over Sri Lanka and will come up against the third-placed side in Pool B – which could be any one of South Africa, Pakistan, Ireland or the West Indies.
After a torrid start to their Cup campaign, Pakistan’s upset win over the Proteas makes their clash against Ireland in Adelaide on Sunday all-but a qualifying final. A win to either side will seal their place in the last eight while the loser will rely on the UAE upsetting the West Indies in Napier to stay alive.
The top four sides in Pool A are already locked in, but there’s still plenty of jostling for position as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and possibly Australia look to avoid the might of India and South Africa in the next stage.
Quarter finals – what we know:
Sri Lanka v TBD, March 18, Sydney - BUY TICKETS
Bangladesh v TBD, March 19, Melbourne - BUY TICKETS
Australia v TBD, March 20, Adelaide - BUY TICKETS
New Zealand v TBD, March 21, Wellington - BUY TICKETS
Tables: View the standings in Pools A & B
Pool A
Remaining matches:
Scotland v Sri Lanka, Hobart, March 11
New Zealand v Bangladesh, Hamilton, March 13
Afghanistan v England, Sydney, March 13
Australia v Scotland, Hobart, March 14
1. New Zealand (played 5, won 5, lost 0, points: 10)
New Zealand’s spot in the quarter finals is signed, sealed and delivered. Sri Lanka’s loss to Australia means New Zealand cannot be dislodged from top spot and with an enormous net run rate and one match remaining against Bangladesh, the Black Caps will finish on top of Pool A and play the fourth-ranked Pool B qualifier – likely to be either the loser of Ireland v Pakistan or the West Indies – in Wellington.
Buy tickets to New Zealand’s quarter final in Wellington HERE.
Guaranteed finish: 1st
2. Australia (played 5, won 3, lost 1, no result 1, points: 7)
After winning Sunday’s crucial match against Sri Lanka, Australia’s place in the quarter finals is assured. All Australia need to do to secure a second-placed finish in Pool A is defeat winless Scotland in Hobart on Sunday.
Securing second spot in Pool A sets up an Adelaide Oval quarter-final against either the winner of Ireland v Pakistan, South Africa (if they suffer a huge upset at the hands of the UAE) or the West Indies – which is more likely if Ireland beat Pakistan due to both side’s inferior run rate.
Buy tickets to Australia’s quarter final at the Adelaide Oval HERE.
Likely finish: 2nd (if Australia defeat Scotland)
Lowest finish: 4th (if Australia lose to Scotland, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka both win)Image Id: ~/media/744B775A43B94EED9615AE1BBD966A74
3. Bangladesh (played 5, won 3, lost 1, no result 1, points: 7)
Bangladesh secured their place in the quarter finals thanks to a famous win over England and the point they picked up from the wash-out against Australia.
If the Tigers can knock off New Zealand in Hamilton and Australia lose, they could jump up into second place ahead of the Aussies and set up a quarter-final clash with the third-placed side in Pool B. If, as expected, Bangladesh lose to New Zealand and Sri Lanka defeat Scotland, that would set up a fourth-placed finish and an MCG quarter final against India.
Buy tickets to Bangladesh’s quarter final at the Melbourne Cricket Ground HERE.
Likely finish: 4th (if Bangladesh lose to New Zealand and Sri Lanka defeat Scotland)
Highest finish: 2nd (if Bangladesh defeat New Zealand and Australia lose to Scotland)Image Id: ~/media/7FE668F164ED4291B221F23E45874964
4. Sri Lanka (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)
Despite losing to Australia, Sri Lanka have booked their place in the quarter finals following England’s loss to Bangladesh. A fourth-place finish is still a possibility if Bangladesh beat New Zealand and Sri Lanka lose to Scotland, but more likely than not the 1996 World Cup champs will slot into third position – setting up an SCG showdown (most likely) with South Africa.
Buy tickets to Sri Lanka’s quarter final at the Sydney Cricket Ground HERE.
Likely finish: 3rd (if Sri Lanka defeat Scotland and Bangladesh lose to New Zealand)
Highest finish: 2nd (if Sri Lanka defeat Scotland, Bangladesh lose to New Zealand and Australia lose to Scotland)
Lowest finish: 4th (if Sri Lanka lost to Scotland)
5. England (played 5, won 1, lost 4, points: 2)
England’s loss to Bangladesh means their quarter-final hopes are no more. Their final match against Afghanistan will be all about pride, with both sides unable to qualify for the next stage.
Likely finish: 5th (if England defeat Afghanistan and Scotland either lose both matches against Sri Lanka and Australia OR only lose one by a margin small enough to keep their NRR lower than England’s)
Lowest finish: 7th (if England lose to Afghanistan and Scotland defeat Sri Lanka and Australia OR only win one by a margin great enough to lift their NRR above England’s)
6. Afghanistan (played 5, won 1, lost 4, points: 2)
With progression past the pool stage no longer a possibility, Afghanistan will be eyeing their first win against a full-member nation at the World Cup when they take on England in Sydney.
Likely finish: 6th (if Afghanistan lose to England and both Sri Lanka and Australia defeat Scotland OR Scotland lose one of those matches by a great enough margin to drop their NRR below Afghanistan’s)
Highest finish: 5th (if Afghanistan defeat England and Scotland lose one of their matches against Sri Lanka or Australia)Image Id: ~/media/39A927D4CBB54FD8B6D41C878CFF0387
7. Scotland (played 4, won 0, lost 4, points: 0)
Despite having two games still to play, the Scots are out of quarter-final contention. Yet to win a match at the World Cup in three tournaments, Preston Mommsen’s side has two more opportunities – albeit tough ones against Sri Lanka and Australia – to notch their first victory.
Likely finish: 7th (if Scotland lose to Sri Lanka and Australia)
Highest finish: 5th (If Scotland defeat Sri Lanka and Australia and maintain or lift their NRR ahead of England or Afghanistan’s)
Pool B
Remaining matches:
South Africa v United Arab Emirates, Wellington, March 12
India v Zimbabwe, Auckland, March 14
United Arab Emirates v West Indies, Napier, March 15
Ireland v Pakistan, Adelaide, March 15
1. India (played 5, won 5, lost 0, points: 10)
India are undefeated after five matches and have locked in top position in Pool B. Finishing first means India will play the fourth-ranked team in Pool B in a quarter final – either Sri Lanka or Bangladesh.
Guaranteed finish: 1st
2. South Africa (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)
South Africa’s rollercoaster World Cup continued against Pakistan on Saturday when they tumbled to a 29-run loss. Twice, the Proteas have scored more than 400 runs this tournament, but they have also been skittled for 177 and 202. That said, South Africa’s only remaining match is against the winless United Arab Emirates.
With a comfortable NRR of +1.462, a win against UAE will see the Proteas finish in second spot. But an upset loss could see them finish third if Pakistan defeat Ireland, or, in a less likely scenario, if West Indies themselves have an enormous win over UAE and manage to lift themselves above the Proteas on NRR.
Technically, the Proteas could finish as low as fourth (if Ireland defeat India and Pakistan beat Ireland) or even miss the playoffs altogether (if the Windies manage an enormous win over the UAE), but in all likelihood South Africa will finish second and play the third-ranked team from Pool A; likely to be Sri Lanka in Sydney.
Likely finish: 2nd (if South Africa defeat the UAE and Pakistan or Ireland don’t win their matches by a big enough margin to pass the Proteas’ NRR)
Lowest finish: 5th (if the West Indies record a massive victory over the UAE and South Africa slump to a huge loss to the same opposition)Image Id: ~/media/15C5F2AF68D74013B9A70B320CDCBD2B
3. Pakistan (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)
Pakistan’s win over South Africa has made their path to the finals a much steadier one. A win over Ireland on Sunday will seal the deal, but even if they lose, West Indies would need a large win over UAE to sneak ahead on NRR.
With both matches to take place just hours apart on either side of the Tasman, the pool stage is set for an exciting finish.
Finishing third would likely set up a clash with Australia in Adelaide, while the team that finishes fourth in Pool B will play New Zealand in Wellington.
Likely finish: 3rd (if Pakistan defeat Ireland, South Africa defeat the UAE and the West Indies don’t record a big enough win to eclipse Pakistan’s NRR)
Highest finish: 2nd (if Pakistan defeat Ireland and South Africa lose to the UAE)
Lowest finish: 5th (if Pakistan lose to Ireland and West Indies record a NRR-boosting victory over the UAE)
4. Ireland (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)
Ireland have had a strong World Cup to date and a win against Pakistan will be enough to finish third or fourth. The Irish would also qualify if they lost and West Indies were upset by UAE.
But two losses and a win to the Windies will see Ireland finish fifth thanks to their poor NRR; a result of the thrashing at the hands of South Africa and narrow wins against UAE and Zimbabwe.
Likely finish: 5th (if Ireland lose to Pakistan and the West Indies defeat the UAE)
Highest finish: 2nd (if Ireland defeat Pakistan and South Africa lose to the UAE)Image Id: ~/media/26220643278C4B30885901D42716D5B5
5. West Indies (played 5, won 2, lost 3, points: 4)
West Indies have shown in their first five matches they can be either very good or they can struggle. After starting the tournament with a disappointing four-wicket loss to Ireland, they followed up by thrashing Pakistan and then won big over Zimbabwe, led by Chris Gayle’s 215. They were then smashed by the Proteas in Sydney three days later before a disappointing batting performance and subsequent loss to India in Perth came next.
However, West Indies’ last remaining match is against UAE and they can still make the play-offs. If Ireland lose their remaining game and the Windies beat UAE, the quarter finals beckon due to their superior NRR.
In a less likely scenario, the Windies could also make it on NRR if they beat UAE and Pakistan lose to Ireland, but big margins would be needed on either side for it to happen.
Likely finish: 4th (if the West Indies defeat the UAE but not by enough to overtake Pakistan’s NRR, assuming Pakistan beat Ireland)
Highest finish: 3rd (if the West Indies defeat the UAE and Ireland defeat Pakistan but not by enough to best the Windies’ NRR, and South Africa suffer a big loss to the UAE.
Lowest finish: 7th (if the West Indies lose badly to the UAE, the UAE also defeat South Africa and Zimbabwe defeat India)Image Id: ~/media/33500CD2046C42E397535A9E8F5E8222
6. Zimbabwe (played 5, won 1, lost 4, points: 2)
Zimbabwe’s loss to Pakistan was a major blow to their hopes of making the knock out phase and the loss to Ireland on Saturday sealed the deal. Zimbabwe can salvage some pride by upsetting India in their final match of the tournament.
Likely finish: 6th (if Zimbabwe lose to India and the UAE lose their remaining matches against the West Indies and South Africa)
Highest finish: 5th (if Zimbabwe defeat India and the West Indies lose to the UAE – NRR dependent)
Lowest finish: 7th (if Zimbabwe lose to India and the UAE win one of their two matches against the West Indies and South Africa by enough to boost their NRR ahead of Zimbabwe’s)
7. United Arab Emirates (played 4, won 0, lost 4, points: 0)
United Arab Emirates have played four matches for four losses, but the Associate team can at least be happy in the knowledge they were more than competitive in their first two matches.
They can also have a say in the final make-up of the top four, as upset wins against either South Africa or West Indies would cause havoc.
Likely finish: 7th (if the UAE lose both matches to the West Indies and South Africa)
Highest finish: 5th (if the UAE record two wins big enough to lift their NRR (-1.691) past that of Zimbabwe (-0.596) and the West Indies (-0.512))