Ponting all aboard the 'Cane Train

After 28 matches of BBL|07, Test great Ricky Ponting is sticking firm with his pre-season ladder predictions but says a dark horse has emerged in the competition.

On the eve of the tournament Ponting forecast a top-four finish for the Melbourne Renegades (8pts), Perth Scorchers (12pts), Brisbane Heat (8pts) and Adelaide Strikers (10pts) and that same quartet of teams currently fill the top four spots.

Ponting expected the Sydney Thunder (6pts), Sydney Sixers (2pts) and Melbourne Stars (2pts) to finish in the bottom three and that is looking likely to be the case with only five wins from a combined 21 games between the trio of clubs.

And the Hobart Hurricanes (8pts), Ponting's former team and one he still holds dear to his heart, was reckoned to just miss out of the finals in fifth spot, where they sit with four matches remaining ahead of tonight's grudge match with the Heat in Hobart.

But Ponting says the Hurricanes, who have not been hurt by national selection and have won their past four matches, are the looming threat in the competition and who are yet to put together a complete performance.

"The Hurricanes, right now, look the most dangerous team to me," Ponting told cricket.com.au.

"They shouldn't lose anyone (to Australia duties) either; they might lose D'Arcy Short to the T20 team right at the end.

"But they probably haven't played their absolute best yet. They've won four games in a row and there's still room for improvement there.

"If you look at some of the other sides, the Strikers lose Travis Head, Rashid Khan, there's a couple of really big holes in that side.

"The Renegades lose (captain Aaron) Finch and (Cameron) White, (international recruit Mohammad) Nabi goes and ( Windies allrounder Kieran) Pollard goes in.

"So there's changes happening left, right and center."

Of the eight BBL clubs, the Hurricanes were the only team not to have a player plucked from their roster for Australia's five-match Gillette ODI Series against England.

Perth lost three players (Mitchell Marsh, Andrew Tye and Jhye Richardson), two each came from the Sixers (Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood), Renegades (Finch and White), Stars (Marcus Stoinis and Adam Zampa), while Adelaide (Head) and Thunder (Pat Cummins) lost one player each.

The Brisbane Heat had Chris Lynn called up, until he succumbed to injury, with a January 27 date penciled in for his return before he might exit again for national T20 duties.

Steve Smith, David Warner and Tim Paine are not part of an active BBL player list this summer.

"If you look at the other squads, they have been slightly depleted with national representation where the Hurricanes certainly haven't been yet," Ponting said.

"For D'Arcy's sake hopefully he does get picked in the T20 team, but if he doesn't (Hobart) are probably going to have the strongest team come the end of the tournament.

"(Jofra) Archer has been really good, (Tymal) Mills is just starting to hit his straps, and you think about (Ben) McDermott and (George) Bailey and these guys and they actually haven't done much in the tournament yet."

The changing of personnel brings an unknown element to the KFC BBL, but Ponting is backing his gut call on where the teams will finish by season's end.

"It's harder to pick now than it was at the start," Ponting said.

"We saw the game (on Friday), the Renegades had three or four changes. The game (yesterday), the Sixers had the same amount of changes with two fresh overseas players coming in.

"With that change of faces and personnel the Sixers look a slightly better unit now.

"There's been a few shock selections out of certain teams that go into the Australian one-day team.

"We've seen someone like Cameron White going (in to Australia's ODI squad) that the Renegades probably wouldn't have expected at the start of the season, so they've got to find another good and very consistent batsman in that No.3 slot for them.

"I'm not going to change my predictions, though. They're working out OK.

"My bottom three are sorted with the Sixers, Thunder and the Stars all being in the last three – I had them down there."

While five teams can still qualify for the finals, three teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.

A horror start to the season by the Stars and Sixers, whom combined for an 0-11 record, saw them ruled out of a top-four finish early, while the Thunder became the latest team to miss the finals after losing to their cross-town rivals on the last ball of the match at the SCG on Saturday.

"It's such a fine line," Ponting said on the Thunder's season.

"They've had three or four games come down to the last ball, one run here or there, and that's how close this tournament is.

"If you're just off a fraction in any department you're found wanting against good opposition players who have done their homework.

"If a little bit of luck falls your way you either win those tight ones or you lose them.

"We've heard (Melbourne Stars coach) Stephen Fleming and a lot of the Stars players talk about that as well, that they felt they've been OK for big chunks of the game – 30-35 overs – but then let it slip for five overs and give teams an opportunity and they're good enough to grab that opportunity and therefore take the game away from you.

"It's easy for me to sit back and analyse games and pick up bits and pieces when I'm up in the commentary box and not out in the heat of battle. It's a different thing when you're on the field.

"There's been some very entertaining cricket so far and I'm sure come the end of the tournament the team that's got the most momentum and the most players in good form will go on to win it."

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