Cancelled tour puts World Cup qualification in focus

South Africa's decision to withdraw from a scheduled three-match ODI series in Australia in January has not only sparked debate about the changing global landscape of the sport, it has also put the qualification process for next year's 50-over World Cup in India firmly into focus.

In statements released on Wednesday, both Cricket Australia and Cricket South Africa accepted that the cancellation of the series would see the 30 ODI Super League points that were on offer awarded to Australia, a further boost to their hopes of direct qualification for the 10-team World Cup in 2023.

The International Cricket Council is yet to rubber stamp that decision but doing so would put further pressure on South Africa, who were already in genuine danger of failing to qualify for the one-day game's showpiece event.

Remind me again – what is the ODI Super League?

Launched in 2020, the inaugural ODI Super League was the ICC's attempt to bring more context to bilateral one-day cricket, with qualification for the World Cup no longer guaranteed for any team, except the host nation.

With the start of the league severely impacted by the pandemic, it has gone slightly under the radar over the past two years, but the reality is nations like South Africa, West Indies and Sri Lanka are currently a chance of not qualifying for the World Cup, a once unthinkable prospect.

The Super League consists of the game’s 12 Full Member nations plus the Netherlands, with each team to play eight three-match series over a two-year period – four at home and four away – with each game worth 10 points.

At the end of the two-year cycle, only the top seven teams plus India (the host nation) will qualify automatically for the World Cup.

The five teams that miss out on the top eight will be forced into a secondary, 10-team qualifier tournament to be held in Zimbabwe next year, where only the top two teams will qualify for the World Cup.

Given what is at stake, the tournament in Zimbabwe is sure to be a tense affair and a potential banana peel that all major nations will be keen to avoid.

Why are South Africa in danger?

To put it simply, they've lost too many games they would have expected to win.

From 13 Super League matches so far, the Proteas have won only four times, including a defeat to Ireland, while two games against lower-ranked opponents (Ireland and the Netherlands) have been declared a no result, costing them valuable points.

Four of their seven defeats have come at home (to Pakistan and Bangladesh) and with series to come against the might of India and England – they also have two games against the Netherlands – they currently sit in 11th position, well outside the automatic qualification spots.

Given how desperate they are for points, why have South Africa cancelled the series against Australia?

Cricket South Africa has taken a calculated risk that even if the Proteas don't qualify automatically for the World Cup, they will finish in the top two in Zimbabwe next year and still make it to India.

CSA's focus this January is their third attempt at launching a domestic T20 league, which it hopes will secure the sport's financial future. Deciding that the nation's leading players are vital to the new competition's success, their potential absence due to the ODI series in Australia (which was to be played on January 12 to 17) was deemed to be unacceptable, hence they have withdrawn from the tour.

While it means sacrificing 30 crucial Super League points at a time the Proteas can ill afford any further slip ups, CSA have effectively decided to take their chances in the qualifier tournament.

"Given our situation on the points table, we knew it would be a tough ask to qualify," Lawson Naidoo, CSA's board chair, told ESPN Cricinfo.

"We would have liked the opportunity to automatically qualify but if we have to go to the qualifiers, that's what we have to do. The players know what's at stake. A World Cup is the pinnacle of a career."

It's also worth pointing out that simply playing the series is no guarantee the Proteas would pick up any points. The decision to cancel the series is effectively the same as a 3-0 series win to Australia, which would have been possible even if the games had gone ahead.

And given their poor start to the Super League and the quality of teams they are yet to play, the Proteas could have still missed automatic qualification even if they'd picked up points in Australia.

Surely a team like South Africa would dominate that qualifier tournament?

On paper, you would say yes, but the gap between Full Member nations and the so-called 'smaller' teams is closing quickly.

Already in the Super League, we have seen Ireland beat West Indies (twice), England and South Africa, while the Netherlands in turn beat Ireland 2-1 in a series last year.

Outside the Super League, teams like Scotland and Namibia are among the contenders to reach the qualifier tournament having shown their wares in the 20-over game with victories over Bangladesh and Ireland respectively at last year's T20 World Cup.

So while teams like South Africa and Sri Lanka would be favoured to advance if they were forced into the qualifier, one little slip up along the way could spell the end of their World Cup hopes.

What happens if South Africa do miss the World Cup?

In the words of Pholetsi Moseki, CSA's chief executive, "That will be a disaster".

Financially, failing to qualify for the World Cup means missing out on revenue participants can earn at a major event, while it could also hurt commercial opportunities for future bilateral campaigns.

On the field, the World Cup remains the pinnacle of the white-ball game and given South Africa are yet to win the ultimate prize, another four years of waiting would be devastating to this proud cricketing nation.

Who else is in danger of missing automatic qualification?

The likes of the Netherlands, Zimbabwe and Ireland (who all missed the 2019 World Cup) are all currently in the bottom five, but major nations like Sri Lanka (six wins from 18 games) and West Indies (eight wins from 21 games) have also dropped plenty of points and could find themselves in the qualifier tournament next year

On the flip side, teams like Bangladesh (12 wins from 18 games) and Afghanistan (10 wins from 12 games) are flying and are currently on track to gain automatic qualification.

How are Australia tracking?

They were already in a good spot, and the impending gain of 30 more points from the South Africa series will only strengthen their position.

The Aussies are currently in eighth, on the cut-off line, but have played only 12 matches so far and will be hot favourites to pick up more points in their upcoming series against Zimbabwe in Townsville (Aug 28 to Sep 3), which will be followed by three matches against New Zealand in Cairns (Sep 6-11).

They are then scheduled to finish with three matches against Afghanistan away next year.

What happens to the Super League after the World Cup?

In a low-key announcement last year, the ICC effectively scrapped the Super League going forward in announcing the 2027 World Cup will be expanded to 14 teams.

While expansion is a good thing for emerging nations like Ireland, the Netherlands and Scotland, it has effectively killed off the Super League and once again left bilateral ODI cricket without any greater context in between major tournaments.