Today's massive top-two clash between India and South Africa will shape the semi-final match-ups, with six teams still vying for a spot
World Cup run home: Semi-finals race narrows
Six teams remain in the hunt for the two open semi-final spots, but realistically, it's a battle between three teams for one spot.
Today's blockbuster between India and South Africa will shape the semi-final match-ups, with the winner likely to take top spot, which means a semi-final in Mumbai against whichever team finishes fourth in a wide-open race. Kolkata will host the second semi-final between the teams that finish second and third, which now looks likely to mean the loser of tonight's game will have to face Australia.
Pakistan's DLS win against the Kiwis kept the top four race alive, and a number of scenarios can play out with another week(!) of group stage matches to go. We explain it all in detail in a team-by-team guide below.
🔒 India
P 7 | W 7 | L 0 | NRR 2.102 | Pts 14
Still to play: South Africa (today), Netherlands (November 12)
The host nation officially booked their spot in the final four in some style with their massive win against Sri Lanka. They now have two wins batting first where their bowlers have demolished opposition under lights, with their others coming by cantering towards the target in run chases. Only New Zealand have pushed India, and they won that with two overs to spare and four wickets still in hand. The showdown with South Africa in Kolkata looms as a mouthwatering clash.
🔒 South Africa
P 7 | W 6 | L 1 | NRR 2.290 | Pts 12
Still to play: India (today), Afghanistan (November 10)
New Zealand's defeat last night confirmed South Africa's spot in the top four, and the blockbuster clash against India on Sunday night will likely determine which team finishes the tournament group stage in top spot. The Proteas have been in destructive form, particularly when batting first with five of their six wins built on the back of massive first-innings totals, with winning margins of more than 100. They dropped their bundle against the Netherlands, a shock defeat that exposed all the old concerns about Proteas teams at World Cup events, but they also held their nerve when chasing to score a nervy and tense one-wicket win against Pakistan. While it now seems fair to ask 'Is this finally the year the Proteas can shed that 'chokers' tag?' the fact remains they have never won a World Cup semi-final.
Australia
P 7 | W 5 | L 2 | NRR 0.924 | Pts 10
Still to play: Afghanistan (November 7), Bangladesh (November 11)
Five wins in a row now for Australia who are rolling into the semi-finals with a wet sail. That less-than-inspiring start to the tournament seems a long time ago, but heavy defeats to top-two India and South Africa will not be forgotten. Formally ending England's World Cup title defence was a bit of icing on the cake. Australia need one win from their final two games to assure themselves of a semi-final spot but, on current form, they should be quietly confident of winning both.
New Zealand
P 8 | W 4 | L 4 | NRR 0.398 | Pts 8
Still to play: Sri Lanka (November 9)
New Zealand put 400 on the board against Pakistan, and still lost, adding to the sense that this might not be the year for the Black Caps. Their net run rate, while still healthy, has taken a massive hit over the past two defeats to South Africa and Pakistan, but they retain a strong advantage here over the chasing pack. New Zealand have now lost their past four games and the door is open for others to leapfrog them. In their favour, Kane Williamson's return from injury last night nearly resulted in a century, but fast bowler Matt Henry has been ruled out of the tournament with a hamstring tear.
How can they still qualify? New Zealand have let control of their own destiny slip out of their hands, but they still remain front-runners to claim fourth spot given their +0.398 net run rate. They will hope Sri Lanka lose to Bangladesh on Monday just to eliminate one worry. If they beat Sri Lanka in their final match, that NRR should be enough to see them in, regardless of what Afghanistan and Pakistan do. But if they lose to Sri Lanka on Thursday, it will be a nervy wait to learn their fate with both Afghanistan and Pakistan playing their final matches after them.
Pakistan
P 8 | W 4 | L 4 | NRR 0.036 | Pts 8
Still to play: England (November 11)
With their backs against the wall, they came up big against New Zealand to stay alive. And while they lifted their net run rate into the positive, it still might not be enough, and they will still rely on other results to fall in their favour. Pakistan started the tournament with a bang but a stinging loss to India and a heartbreaking one-wicket defeat to South Africa had seen them lose four on the trot before defeating Bangladesh. The game dropped to Afghanistan will be one they view as especially costly. They've now won two matches and there will be plenty riding on the final clash with England, who will be looking to sneak into the top eight and a spot at the 2025 Champions Trophy.
How can they still qualify? Beating New Zealand last night was crucial. They now need Afghanistan to drop at least one of their final two games, and ideally hope Sri Lanka can roll the Kiwis as well. But, even if Sri Lanka lose to NZ, Pakistan will have the advantage of playing after their semi-final rivals and will enter their final match against England knowing not only must they win, but exactly what is required to lift them into the top four on net run rate.
Afghanistan
P 7 | W 4 | L 3 | NRR -0.330 | Pts 8
Still to play: Australia (November 7), South Africa (November 10)
Afghanistan's win over the Netherlands has them level with New Zealand and Pakistan on points, but they sit sixth on net run rate. The deeper this tournament runs the more Afghanistan will rue their first-up defeat to Bangladesh and that dismal batting display. But it has otherwise been an impressive campaign, with wins against England, Pakistan and Sri Lanka before their latest against the Dutch that keeps them well and truly in the race for the semi-finals. Not in their favour is a tough run home and they will need to beat at least one of Australia or South Africa to progress.
How can they still qualify? With net run rate against them, Afghanistan simply need to win at least one of their final two games against Australia or South Africa, and do so in a manner that lifts their NRR. If they can snag one win, New Zealand drop their final game to Sri Lanka, and Pakistan lose to England, they will steal fourth spot. If one or both of New Zealand and Pakistan win their final games - and Pakistan have the advantage of playing last - then Afghanistan will need to win both remaining matches (a scenario that could see them go as high as third!) to avoid it being a battle over net run rate.
Sri Lanka
P 7 | W 2| L 5 | NRR -1.162 | Pts 4
Still to play: Bangladesh (tomorrow), New Zealand (November 9)
The loss to India has all but ended their semi-final hopes, but the mathematical possibility remains, however faint. Being skittled for just 55 against the host nation, coming after they were bowled out for just 50 by the same opposition in the Asia Cup final in September, was a stinging reality check of where they stand in one-day cricket.
How can they still qualify? They must win both remaining games by huge margains to lift their net run rate. And they need Afghanistan to lose their remaining games by big margains, and then England to beat Pakistan. If all those results happen, the fourth semi-final spot will be determined by net run rate.
Netherlands
P 7 | W 2| L 5 | NRR -1.398 | Pts 4
Still to play: England (November 8), India (November 12)
They've won two matches at a World Cup for the first time ever, but are not satisfied yet, and will see Friday night's defeat to Afghanistan as a big missed opportunity. Mathematically not out of the semi-finals yet, but they will be eliminated if Afghanistan win against the Aussies, or they lose to cellar-dwellers England, a match where the carrot of qualification for the 2025 Champions Trophy for a top eight finish makes this a huge clash, in context.
How can they still qualify? They need the Aussies to knock off Afghanistan next Tuesday, and will then need to thump England by an astronomical margin, rely on Sri Lanka to beat New Zealand and South Africa to beat Afghanistan, have England rebound to thump Pakistan, and then, if all that goes to plan, they'll need to smash host nation India in Bengaluru in the final group stage match to lift their net run rate above their rivals. Easy, right?
❌ Bangladesh
P 7 | W 1| L 6 | NRR -1.446 | Pts 2
Still to play: Sri Lanka (tomorrow), Australia (November 11)
Bangladesh became the first team officially eliminated from the semi-final race when thumped by Pakistan on Tuesday night, their sixth defeat in a row following their first-up win against Afghanistan. Depending on other results, their match against Sri Lanka may only have 2025 Champions League qualification at stake, but they could still be a banana peel for Australia in their final match.
❌ England
P 7 | W 1| L 6 | NRR -1.504 | Pts 2
Still to play: Netherlands (November 8), Pakistan (November 11)
It's all over red rover and Jos Buttler's men are consigned to enduring all the moral victory and upside-down table gags you want to make. Their focus now is firstly trying to avoid the wooden spoon and lift themselves into the top eight to secure a spot at the 2025 Champions Trophy.
2023 men's ODI World Cup standings
| Team | M | W | L | T | N/R | NRR | Ded. | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
IND
|
9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.57 | 0 | 18 |
|
2
SA
|
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.261 | 0 | 14 |
|
3
AUS
|
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.841 | 0 | 14 |
|
4
NZ
|
9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.743 | 0 | 10 |
|
5
PAK
|
9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -0.199 | 0 | 8 |
|
6
AFG
|
9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -0.336 | 0 | 8 |
|
7
ENG
|
9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -0.572 | 0 | 6 |
|
8
BAN
|
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1.087 | 0 | 4 |
|
9
SL
|
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1.419 | 0 | 4 |
|
10
NED
|
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1.825 | 0 | 4 |
M: Matches played
W: Wins
L: Losses
T: Ties
N/R: No results
NRR: Net Run Rate
Ded.: Deductions
PTS: Total points