Take a closer look at the games to come and the scenarios involved with all five spots in the BBL Finals still up for grabs in the season's final week
BBL Finals race: How each club can reach the post-season
Just three points separate the teams currently sitting second through to seventh on the KFC BBL ladder as the battle for spots in the finals series intensifies with just 10 regular season matches to be played.
The BBL|10 regular season concludes with a festival of Big Bash cricket, a triple-header of games on January 26 that will go a long way to deciding the final positions of teams heading into the finals, including the coveted top two spot.
The Sydney Sixers – currently the only team guaranteed a finals berth – are in prime position to secure a top two spot, and could do so as soon as this evening if they can beat the Sydney Thunder in Adelaide.
Here's a reminder of the BBL's five-team finals schedule and a club-by-club look at each team and what they can expect as the regular season reaches its climax.
BBL|10 Finals Series
(venues TBC, all matches will be screened on Channel 7, Fox Cricket & Kayo)
Friday Jan 29: The Eliminator (Fourth v Fifth)
Saturday Jan 30: The Qualifier (First v Second)
Sunday Jan 31: The Knockout (Third v Winner of The Eliminator)
Thurs Feb 4: The Challenger (Loser of The Qualifier v Winner of The Knockout)
Sat Feb 6: The Final (Winner of The Qualifier v Winner of The Challenger)
This is getting seriously tense! #BBL10 pic.twitter.com/OLjawaRJO4— KFC Big Bash League (@BBL) January 21, 2021
1st: Sydney Sixers (32 points)
Played: 11 | Won: 8 | Lost: 3 | Bash Boost points: 8 | NRR: 0.554
The run home
Today v Thunder @ Adelaide Oval
Jan 24 v Hurricanes @ MCG
Jan 26 v Stars @ MCG
The Sixers are the only team so far confirmed to play in the BBL Finals, and even picking up just the Bash Boost point tonight against the Thunder will be enough to guarantee them a top-two finish. They need five points from their remaining three games to guarantee themselves top spot, which would give them hosting rights for the Qualifier final, but whether that can be played in Sydney will hinge on border closures and government travel restrictions. Last year's beaten finalists, the Sixers have made themselves the team to beat in BBL|10, and if they weren't already going well enough the squad is bolstered this week by the return of Sean Abbott and Moises Henriques, who will be champing at the bit to get stuck in having warmed the pine with Australia's Test side since early December. But while Mitchell Starc has been cleared fit to return to action by Cricket Australia's medicos, he's yet to confirm he'll return for the finals campaign.
2nd: Perth Scorchers (24 points)
Played: 11 | Won: 6 | Lost: 4 | NR: 1 | BB pts: 4 | NRR: 0.974
The run home
Today v Hurricanes @ Marvel Stadium
Jan 23 v Stars @ MCG
Jan 26 v Heat @ Adelaide Oval
With three teams locked on 24 points, the Scorchers officially sit second thanks to boasting the competition's best Net Run Rate ahead of this afternoon's game with the Hobart Hurricanes. A win today for Perth will lift them into outright second spot, guaranteeing finals cricket and going a long way to locking up a double chance in the top two. But a loss could see them leapfrogged by Hobart, who would jump up all the way from sixth into second. Whatever the result this evening, their match tomorrow, across town at the MCG against the Stars will be massive, with either the chance to lock in a top two spot (if they win tonight) or stay in the finals hunt (if they lose tonight). A final day match-up with the Heat is hard to predict given the enigmatic nature of the Brisbane side's form. Worst-case scenario, if Perth don't pick up another point they could still slip out of the finals picture completely.
3rd: Melbourne Stars (24 points)
Played: 12 | Won: 5 | Lost: 6 | NR: 1 | BB pts: 7 | NRR: 0.240
The run home
Jan 23 v Scorchers @ MCG
Jan 26 v Sixers @ MCG
First priority for the Melbourne Stars in what has been a turbulent season on and off the field is to make the top five, and they will do that with a win from either of their remaining two games. But that's easier said than done with a tough draw pitting them against the Scorchers then the Sixers – the top two teams in the competition. Making the top two is a degree of difficulty harder; for that to happen the Stars need to not only collect maximum points from both games, they also need the Scorchers drop points elsewhere, either tonight against Hobart or on January 26 against Brisbane. Finishing top isn't out of the realms of possibility but requires both the Scorchers and Sixers not secure another point in each club's remaining three games, and surpass the Sydney side on Net Run Rate. Conversely, if the Stars lose both games, they would need to hope both the Sydney Thunder and Hobart Hurricanes – both currently just one point behind - lose all their remaining games.
4th: Adelaide Strikers (24 points)
Played: 12 | Won: 6 | Lost: 6 | BB pts: 6 | NRR: 0.159
The run home
Jan 24 v Thunder @ Adelaide Oval
Jan 25 v Thunder @ Adelaide Oval
Illustrating how quickly the BBL|10 ladder can change, the Strikers were yesterday in seventh, then thumped the Brisbane Heat thanks to an Alex Carey century, and now find themselves back firmly in the playoff picture, equal second on points and fourth overall on Net Run Rate. With both remaining matches at Adelaide Oval against the Sydney Thunder, who sit a point behind them on the ladder ahead of tonight's game, they have a favourable draw and destiny is in their own hands. Maximum points makes pushing into the top two a possibility, but that would be dependent on other results. But Adelaide have already played 12 games, with only two matches remaining, while the Thunder and Hobart have a game in hand. In their favour is Hobart's tough run home – they face top teams Perth and Sixers in their final three – meaning for the Strikers that one win from their two final games against the Thunder should be enough to secure a spot in the five.
5th: Sydney Thunder (23 points)
Played: 11 | Won: 6 | Lost: 5 | BB pts: 5 | NRR: 0.919
The run home
Today v Sixers @ Adelaide Oval
Jan 24 v Strikers @ Adelaide Oval
Jan 25 v Strikers @ Adelaide Oval
The Sydney Thunder will need to reverse their recent form that has seen them lose four of their past five matches, including the past three on the trot, to remain in the playoff picture. They currently sit ahead of Hobart only on Net Run Rate and face three tough matches, starting with tonight's Sydney derby. Perth and the Stars will no doubt cheering them on tonight against the Sixers, but Adelaide and Hobart will not. They have an excellent Net Run Rate, so even a loss tonight is unlikely to see them drop out of the top five immediately, but it would make their position precarious. If they can at a minimum pick up the Bash Boost point in a narrow loss tonight, they could jump up to third on NRR. A win, regardless of the Bash Boost, would lift them to second. In summary, two outright wins and they'll be in the top five, but anything less and they're fate is out of their hands.
6th: Hobart Hurricanes (23 points)
Played: 11 | Won: 6 | Lost: 5 | BB pts: 5 | NRR: -0.117
The run home
Today v Scorchers @ Marvel Stadium
Jan 24 v Sixers @ MCG
Jan 26 v Renegades @ MCG
The big news for the Hobart Hurricanes is the return of Matthew Wade to rekindle his opening partnership with D'Arcy Short for the club's final three matches of the season, and they're going to need the help up against the Perth Scorchers, today at Marvel, and the Sydney Sixers, on Sunday at the MCG. Those two teams are currently the top two in the competition, making Perth's task to reach the finals that little bit harder. Two wins from their three games will do it, but like the Thunder sitting above them on NRR, anything less and it becomes very tricky indeed. That negative NRR isn't helping their cause, and for Hobart it could come down to needing a big win on the final day of the regular season to determine where they finish on the ladder.
7th: Brisbane Heat (21 points)
Played: 12 | Won: 5 | Lost: 7 | BB pts: 6 | NRR: -0.479
The run home
Jan 23 v Renegades @ Marvel Stadium
Jan 26 v Scorchers @ Adelaide Oval
Finals cricket remains a mathematical possibility for the Brisbane Heat but it requires a lot of favourable results going their way, starting with today's double-header. With two games remaining, nothing less than maximum points will be required for them to even be in with a shot of making the five. If both the Thunder and Hurricanes lose their matches today, their chances improve somewhat but they will need to defeat both the Melbourne Renegades at Marvel Stadium tomorrow – a bogey venue for Brisbane that's seen them suffer horror batting collapses on their previous two visits – and then topple the Perth Scorchers in a January 26 showdown. Even one win could yet prove enough for the Heat, but that requires the Thunder and Hurricanes to lose all three remaining games.
8th: Melbourne Renegades (13 points)
Played: 12 | Won: 3 | Lost: 9 | BB pts: 4 | NRR: -1.964
The run home
Jan 23 v Heat @ Marvel Stadium
Jan 26 v Hurricanes @ MCG
The only team officially out of the BBL|10 Finals race, the Renegades' only motivation is pride, and to disrupt the finals chances of others. It's been a season to forget for Michael Klinger's men, but a good showing in front of their home fans against the Heat tomorrow could well be the final nail in the coffin for Brisbane, and they could do the same to Hobart at the MCG on the season's final day.