The numbers that damage toss theory

The coin toss will remain in Test cricket, at least for now, and former Australia wicketkeeper Adam Gilchrist says the tradition is not to blame for the declining performances of teams away from home.

And the numbers indicate Gilchrist might well be right.

Just months after the ICC's Cricket Committee recommended against scrapping the toss, South Africa captain Faf du Plessis and former Australia skipper Allan Border have restarted the debate about its future in the game.

The likes of like Ricky Ponting, Steve Waugh and Michael Holding have previously called for administrators to consider the future of the pre-match routine, with those in favour of a change arguing that giving the away team the power to bat or bowl first will help address the sliding standards of teams when playing abroad.

But numbers from statistician Ric Finlay indicate the coin toss is not a significant factor in the result of a match. Finlay's analysis of Tests played this century found that teams that win the toss go on to win around 41 per cent of matches, while the toss loser wins around 36 per cent of games.

And those numbers roughly continue in a smaller breakdown of the past 10 years, where the toss winner has won 42 per cent of games and the toss loser has won 35 per cent of the time.

An even smaller breakdown of the past five years sees the toss winner claiming victory in 47 per cent of matches, an increase due mainly to the paucity of draws in modern Test cricket. While a five per cent increase might sound significant, hypothetically it equates to roughly 12 extra wins across the five-year period.

And while toss winners have been slighty more successful in the past five years, the number of wins from teams that lose the toss has remained relatively steady (34 per cent).

Gilchrist believes players simply need to adjust better, whether they're batting or bowling first.

"I think we're just going through a phase where teams aren't as good overseas and then it goes in fits and spurts," he told Back Page Live.

"Another era will turn up and dominate overseas. I just think, do we have to change everything about history?

"We’ve got to not worry about (the toss) and sharpen up on better up-skilling and go over there and be better in those conditions."

While historical data shows the toss makes a negligible difference to the outcome of a match, there's no doubt modern teams are losing Tests away from home more frequently.

Since 2000, teams have won around 30 per cent of matches away from home, which is an increase from the 25 per cent won by away teams in the 20th century. But teams are losing at a far greater rate this century than last; away teams since 2000 have lost close to half the matches played (47 per cent) compared to 34 per cent between 1990 and 2000.

Increased scoring rates is likely the main reason modern away teams have not been able to hang on for draws as often as in previous eras; more than 40 per cent of Tests in the 20th century ended in draws, compared to roughly 22 per cent since 2000.

In May, the ICC Cricket Committee described the toss as "an integral part of Test cricket which forms part of the narrative of the game", although they also "urged members to continue to focus on the delivery of pitches that provide a better balance between bat and ball in line with ICC regulations".

Another of the Committee's recommendations was to call for an improvement in training facilities and conditions provided to visiting teams in order to produce a fairer contest.

The committee, chaired by former India Test bowler and coach Anil Kumble, identified "clear expectations for the treatment of visiting teams particularly around practice facilities, warm-up matches and logistical arrangements" among items it claimed needed to be addressed.

After his side was spun out for just 73 in the first Test of the recent series in Sri Lanka, du Plessis indicated the conditions provided to the tourists early in the tour had not adequately prepared them for what they were to face in the Test series.

And he hinted that the Sri Lankans could expect something similar when they next head to South Africa.

"We played a warm-up game in Colombo which was on a flat wicket – it didn't spin," du Plessis said.

"So you have to give credit to Sri Lanka for doing that well. That's some learning in that to take when we're playing in South Africa.

"The nets that we've been playing in haven't been spinning at all. So we could have even come a month earlier but if you're practising on facilities that don't spin, you're not going to get what you get out there (in the Tests)."