While Australia haven't won an Ashes Test abroad after conceding a first-innings lead since 1981, a number of factors could be in their favour
Rare comeback victory not out of reach for Aussies
If history is anything to go by a chase of 150 or more in the fourth innings is set to be challenging for England, as Australia aim to re-write the record books and come from behind to win at Edgbaston.
At stumps on day three of the first Ashes Test, Australia are 3-124 holding a slender lead of 34 after conceding a first-innings deficit of 90 runs.
Only three times in 14 occasions has a team chased down a target of more than 150 batting last at Edgbaston, with England achieving the feat just once.
Results chasing 150+ in the 4th innings at Edgbaston:
Innings: 14 | Won: 3 | Lost: 8 | Drawn: 3
The highest successful pursuit in Birmingham was 11 years ago when South Africa posted 5-283 to win by five wickets on the back of captain Graeme Smith's unbeaten 154. That five-wicket win by the Proteas was the last time England lost at Edgbaston.
Twenty years ago, England motored down 208 in 43.4 overs on the third day to beat New Zealand after giving up a 100-run first-innings advantage, with fast bowler Alex Tudor whacking 21 fours in a quick-fire 99. England's 3-211 in 1999 is their highest fourth-innings total batting last in Birmingham.
Finally, the powerful West Indies led by Viv Richards scored 4-157 to win in 1991, with the skipper hitting a six to win the match needing just one run for victory. Classic Viv.
Adding to England's worries is the impressive fourth innings record of Australia's new-ball fast bowlers.
World No.1 Test bowler Pat Cummins averages 15.22 in the second innings compared to 28 in the first, while Pattinson's average drops from 30.92 to 21.12 in the second innings.
The pair also strike more regularly in the second innings, with Cummins taking a wicket every 35 balls and Pattinson every 43, compared to 58 and 52 in the first innings, respectively.
The hosts will also have to deal with Nathan Lyon, Australia's greatest off-spinner who will pose a significant threat on a pitch that has shown signs of inconsistent bounce and increasing turn.
However, counting against Australia is a daunting statistic that dates back 38 years.
Australia have not won an Ashes Test in the United Kingdom after conceding a first-inning lead since 1981 at Trent Bridge, where the tourists trailed by six runs before going on to prevail by four wickets.
Australia's past 20 Ashes wins on UK soil have been as front-runners, meaning Tim Paine's side will have create history if they are to take out the first Ashes Test.
England fast bowler Chris Woakes, who scored 37 not out in a valuable 65-run ninth-wicket partnership with Stuart Broad either side of lunch on day three, described the series opener as a "well-poised Ashes Test" after three days.
"It's been a great Test match so far, reasonably even," Woakes said.
"We're pretty happy having them 30 for three but at the same time I think we probably just leaked a couple too many tonight but if we can start well in the morning, two big wickets up front could be quite crucial.
"All of a sudden if you have them 50 or 60 for five, it's a big turning point. Obviously tomorrow morning, as always, is important.
"That partnership with Stuart, 60 runs or so, it could be quite a big part of the game and hopefully for us it's a good thing."
For Australia to defy history and take a 1-0 series lead, Pattinson says the plan is to bat through day four and take wickets early when it's their turn to bowl again.
"I think the key will be definitely make the most of the new ball with the pitch being quite hard and not much moisture in it, the ball does get soft quite quick," Pattinson said.
"You've seen how at times both teams have tried to get the ball changed because it's been going out of shape quite a bit.
"But they (the umpires) are quite reluctant to change it.
"If we can bat all day tomorrow we'll probably more than likely take a good lead.
"I think we saw today how we scored at close to four an over, so no doubt while Steve (Smith) and Travis (Head, who put on 49 in 13 overs) were out there they managed to score quite freely, without trying at stages."
2019 Qantas Ashes Tour of England
Australia squad: Tim Paine (c), Cameron Bancroft, Pat Cummins, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Peter Siddle, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner.
England squad: Joe Root (c), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes (vc), Olly Stone, Chris Woakes.
First Test: August 1-5,Edgbaston
Tour match: Australians v Worcestershire, August 7-9
Second Test: August 14-18,Lord's
Third Test: August 22-26, Headingley
Tour match: Australians v Derbyshire, August 29-31
Fourth Test: September 4-8, Old Trafford
Fifth Test: September 12-16, The Oval