Semi scenarios: Aussies hunt big net run rate boost

There are now just six Super 12 matches remaining at the T20 World Cup, and it is a final chance for Australia to make their semi-final push.

The Aussies enter their final Group 1 encounter tonight against Afghanistan knowing anything less than a huge victory margin will likely spell the end of their campaign. The Adelaide weather is clear for the weekend, so washouts will not influence the semi-final picture.

In Group 2, Pakistan's win over South Africa on Thursday night has kept alive their faint hopes, but they must now hope for an upset in that group's triple-header of games on Sunday.

And for those teams whose semi-final ambitions might already be beyond them, the carrot of automatic qualification to the 2024 T20 World Cup means there's still plenty to play for.

Here's a team-by-team look at their semi-final chances.

Group 1

New Zealand

Results so far: beat Australia, washout with Afghanistan, beat Sri Lanka, lost to England

Game to come: Ireland (Friday, Adelaide)

With all due respect to our New Zealand neighbours, every Aussie will be cheering Ireland this afternoon. Defeat to England on Monday night was a blow - for the Kiwis as well as the Aussie side - but the Black Caps’ T20 World Cup fate remains in their own hands owing largely to a strong net run rate (NRR). Put simply, victory over Ireland in Adelaide this afternoon will hand them top spot in Group 1 and an opportunity to make a second consecutive T20 World Cup final. Defeat, however, would leave them relying on Australia losing to Afghanistan (a match immediately following their clash against Ireland). If the Kiwis lose and Australia win, it's tournament over for the Black Caps, as whoever takes the points from Sunday's England-Sri Lanka game will overtake them.

England

Results so far: beat Afghanistan, lost to Ireland (DLS), washout with Australia, beat New Zealand

Game to come: Sri Lanka (Saturday, SCG)

Victory against the Black Caps has propelled England into pole position in their battle with Australia for a semi-final spot, but it's not assured yet. England have the advantage of playing last, with their final match tomorrow after New Zealand and Australia have played their final group games, so Jos Buttler's men will know exactly what is required of them.Should either Australia or New Zealand lose to Afghanistan or Ireland respectively (matches that take place a day prior to their clash against Sri Lanka), NRR would not come in the equation, and an England win would see them progress. But if both Australia and NZ win their matches, England must win, which would deadlock the three teams on seven points apiece, with NRR the tiebreaker. If the Aussies happen to thrash Afghanistan by a huge margain, and England's victory over Sri Lanka is only a slim one, they could still finish third behind the Aussies and be eliminated.

Australia

Results so far: Lost to NZ, beat Sri Lanka, washout with England, beat Ireland

Game to come: Afghanistan (Friday, Adelaide)

England’s win over New Zealand at the Gabba has left Australia with a tricky and uncertain path to the semi-finals. The hosts are now relying on upsets in the final round of Group 1 matches, or a huge victory over Afghanistan to beef up a low NRR. Should either of those upsets occur – that is, Ireland defeat New Zealand or Sri Lanka defeat England – the Aussies would progress to the semi-finals with any form of victory over the Afghans. Should results go as expected, however, Australia (NRR -0.304) would need to seal a huge win to not only overtake England (NRR +0.547) but give themselves enough of a buffer to shield themselves from Jos Buttler’s side leapfrogging them again. Just to overtake England’s NRR alone, Australia would need to beat Afghanistan by approximately 60 runs if batting first, or chase a target of 140 in roughly 13 overs. England also have the advantage of playing their match on Saturday, after Australia’s match against Afghanistan on Friday, which could make the Aussies' tactical approach at the Adelaide Oval a fascinating watch.

Sri Lanka

Results so far: beat Ireland, lost to Australia, lost to NZ, beat Afghanistan

Game to come: England (Saturday, SCG)

Sri Lanka are still in with a faint semi-final chance, and every Australian will be supporting them in Saturday's clash with England. Even so, they need an awful lot to go their way to progress. First and foremost, they need either Ireland to upset New Zealand on Friday afternoon OR Afghanistan to upset Australia in the game immediately following. Then, on Saturday, they must knock off England in what is set to be an exciting clash at the SCG. Nothing less than a Friday upset and win over England will see them through. If the Aussies and Kiwis do win and end the Sri Lankan's semi-final chances, they can still finish no lower than fourth, ensuring they will have automatically qualified for the 2024 T20 World Cup, a great result for a team that had to come through the first round stage here.

Ireland

Results so far: lost to Sri Lanka, beat England (DLS), washout with Afghanistan, lost to Australia

Game to come: New Zealand, (Friday, Adelaide)

Their semi-final dream is officially over after being beaten by the Aussies, and things will not get any easier for the Irish with New Zealand to come, but they could still shape the semi-finals with an upset win this afternoon in Adelaide. Their goal now is a good showing against New Zealand but unless they can cause a second major upset and win that game they will finish no higher than fifth, meaning they will have a nervous wait to see if they will automatically qualify for the 2024 T20 World Cup (more on that process at the bottom of this article).

Afghanistan

Results so far: Lost to England, washout v New Zealand, washout v Ireland, lost to Sri Lanka

Game to come: Australia (Friday, Adelaide)

Defeat to Sri Lanka on Tuesday spelled the end of any remote Afghanistan hopes this T20 World Cup, but in truth it was Melbourne’s big wet that ruined their chances after two MCG washouts against New Zealand and Ireland respectively. While they cannot progress beyond the match against Australia in Adelaide, there’s little chance they will view the clash as a dead rubber in what is a rare chance to send the T20 World Cup hosts packing, and with Rashid Khan playing in Adelaide where he is beloved by Strikers fans.

Group 2

India

Results so far: beat Pakistan, beat Netherlands, lost to South Africa, beat Bangladesh

Game to come: Zimbabwe (Sunday, MCG)

A thrilling victory against Bangladesh in Adelaide took the Indians to top spot in their group and has them all-but qualified to progress through to the semi-finals. After Pakistan beat South Africa on Thursday night, there is only the faintest chance India could miss the semi-finals. That would require them to lose badly to Zimbabwe in front of a packed MCG on Sunday, and Bangladesh to have an almighty NRR boosting win over Pakistan. But chances are they will sail into the semis sitting pretty at the top of Group 2.

South Africa

Results so far: washout with Zimbabwe, beat Bangladesh, beat India, lost to Pakistan

Game to come: Netherlands (Sunday, Adelaide)

The Proteas let slip the chance to claim top spot in Group 2 last night when they lost to a desperate Pakistan in Adelaide. It makes Sunday's clash with the Netherlands a must-win affair for them as defeat would see them knocked out. Pass that hurdle and they are safely into the semi-finals. 

Pakistan

Results so far: lost to India, lost to Zimbabwe, beat Netherlands, beat South Africa

Game to come: Bangladesh (Sunday, Adelaide)

Hope lives here. It's faint and it's fickle, but Pakistan remain a mathematical possibility of reaching the semi-finals. The first step in that process was ticked off when the Dutch beat Zimbabwe on Wednesday afternoon. Pakistan then did their bit by beating South Africa last night. Next, they must beat Bangladesh handsomely on Sunday, and in this tournament a win like that cannot be guaranteed. They will then need either an unlikely Netherlands victory over South Africa, or for Zimbabwe to knock off India on Sunday evening in Melbourne. If the Proteas and Zimbabwe win, it will be down to NRR with the arch-rivals both finishing on six points.If the Dutch beat South Africa, Pakistan and India could both book semi-final spots with victories on Sunday. 

Bangladesh

Results so far: beat Netherlands, lost to South Africa, beat Zimbabwe, lost to India

Game to come: Pakistan (Sunday, Adelaide)

A heartbreaking loss to India on Wednesday night put a massive dent in the Tigers' semi-final hopes, however they will go into their must-win clash with Pakistan on Sunday full of confidence after a strong tournament to date. Should they beat Pakistan, they would rely on the unlikely event that Zimbabwe defeat India by a considerable margin, and that South Africa lose both of their remaining two matches. It's a long shot, but Bangladesh will take solace in the fact that they have likely secured themselves automatic qualification in the 2024 T20 World Cup. 

Zimbabwe

Results so far: washout with South Africa, beat Pakistan, lost to Bangladesh, lost to Netherlands

Game to come: India (Sunday, MCG)

After starting their Super 12 campaign with so much promise, the Zimbabweans would be disappointed with their loss to the Dutch on Wednesday afternoon that essentially ended their tournament. That followed a drama-filled three-run loss to Bangladesh last week, with the Chevrons at one point looking a genuine threat of emerging from Group 2. Attention now turns to qualifying for the next version of the T20 World Cup, with a win over India on Sunday required if they are to finish in the top four of Group 2.  

Netherlands

Results so far: lost to Bangladesh, lost to India, lost to Pakistan, beat Zimbabwe 

Game to come: South Africa (Sunday, Adelaide)

A well-deserved win over Zimbabwe was the Dutch's first of the Super 12 stage and gave their fans something to smile about on Wednesday afternoon. Unable to advance to the semi-finals, the Netherlands could shake up Group 2 with an upset against the Proteas, with a win on Sunday also keeping their hopes of qualifying for the 2024 event alive should Zimbabwe lose. 

2024 T20 World Cup qualification explained

Results in this current tournament will go a long way to determining the line-up for the next T20 World Cup, to be co-hosted by the USA and West Indies in 2024. That tournament will be expanded to feature 20 teams for the first time, with 12 teams to be awarded automatic qualification.

The two co-hosts will get immediate entry, as well as the top eight teams from the current tournament in Australia – ie, those finishing in the top four in each Super 12 group.

The final two automatic qualification spots will be the next two highest ranked teams on the ICC's T20 team rankings at November 14 (the day after the current tournament concludes). 

The remaining eight spots at the World Cup will come via regional qualifier tournaments with the top two teams from events in Africa, Asia and Europe winning through, as well as one apiece from the Americas and East Asia Pacific groups.