Shield jigsaw comes down to final round

Tasmania will host Victoria next week in what is effectively a JLT Sheffield Shield semi-final, with the winner to take on Queensland in the season decider later this month.

The Bulls have all but secured hosting rights for the final thanks to their stunning victory over Western Australia on Friday, which – barring a heavy defeat and a raft of shock results next week – means the final will be held at Allan Border Field from March 23.

Round nine of the Shield competition this week ended the final chances of both Western Australia and South Australia, while NSW's loss at Junction Oval means they will need a miracle if they are to force their way into the top two and reach the final.

It means one of the Bulls, Tigers and Bushrangers will be the Shield champions for 2017-18.

The great unknown when attempting to predict final ladder positions is the complex bonus-point system, which sees teams earn a bonus of 0.01 points for every run scored above 200 within the first 100 overs of their first innings, and a bonus of 0.1 for each wicket they take within the first 100 overs of the opposition's first innings.

The Bulls finished round nine in top spot on 47.87 points, with the Tigers (39.29) in second, the Vics (39.11) in third and the Blues (31.79) in fourth and still a mathematical – albeit unlikely – chance of reaching the final.

Round 10 will see the Tigers host the Bushrangers in what is a do-or-die clash at Blundstone Arena, with the victor to guarantee a spot in the decider against the Bulls.

Queensland could conceivably miss out on hosting the final, but that would require a dramatic series of results in the final round.

The Bulls would have to lose their game to the Blues in Wollongong and earn minimal bonus points, and the victor of the Tasmania-Victoria game would have to earn at least 2.59 bonus points more than the Bulls in order to relegate Queensland from top spot.

The Blues, meanwhile, require the Tasmania-Victoria match to be drawn and then make up 8.5 points on the Tigers to earn a spot in the decider. It's not an impossible task, but they'll need absolutely everything to go their way.

Round 10 gets underway on Wednesday with all matches to be live streamed on cricket.com.au and the CA Live app.

WINNERS & LOSERS FROM ROUND 9

Queensland: Gained 7.53 points, stayed first

Victoria: Gained 7 points, dropped from second to third

Tasmania: Gained 7.85, moved from third to second

New South Wales: Gained 1 point, stayed fourth

Western Australia: Gained 1.11 points, stayed fifth

South Australia: Gained 0.87 points, stayed sixth

ROUND 10 – March 14-17

NSW Blues v Queensland in Wollongong

Tasmania v Victoria in Hobart

South Australia v Western Australia in Adelaide