Explained: World Cup qualification scenarios

The World Cup Qualifiers tournament has reached the pointy end with just two matches remaining to decide the final spot at next year’s showpiece ODI event in England and Wales after the West Indies secured their spot on Wednesday.

The top two sides on the table after the Super Sixes stage of the tournament will book their spot at the World Cup, and play a final for the qualifying tournament that will determine seedings in the main draw.

Here’s a rundown of what these final two days mean for each side.

1st: West Indies (8 points)

Super Sixes: Played 5 | Won 4 | Lost 1 | NRR 0.472

The two-time winners of the men’s World Cup avoided the embarrassment of missing out on the main event with a rain-affected win over Scotland on Wednesday. They now wait to see which team they'll meet in Sunday's tournament final.

2nd: Zimbabwe (5 points)

Super Sixes: Played 4 | Won 2 | Tie 1 | Lost 1 | NRR 0.52

The run home: March 22: v UAE (Harare Sports Club)

The tournament hosts will enter Thursday’s clash against the currently winless UAE as red-hot favourites, despite suffering their first defeat of the tournament against the Windies on Monday. A win against the UAE would guarantee their place at the World Cup, while a loss will see them needing to rely on a tie between Ireland and Afghanistan while also maintaining their NRR advantage. Meanwhile the threat of rain in Harare could, incredibly, spoil the hosts' World Cup dream; should their match be washed out, they would receive one point, handing Ireland or Afghanistan an opportunity to leapfrog them on what would be a countback on matches won against Super Six teams throughout the tournament. 

3rd: Scotland (5 points)

Super Sixes: Played 5 | Won 2 | Tie 1 | Lost 2 | NRR 0.243

The World Cup dream is over for Scotland after their heartbreaking loss to the Windies. The Associate nation will be among those left to rue the ICC's decision to cut next year's showpiece event down to 10 teams while they watch on from afar.

4th: Ireland (4 points)

Super Sixes: Played 4 | Won 2 | Lost 2 | NRR 0.474

The run home: March 23: v Afghanistan (Harare Sports Club)

Ireland kept their World Cup dream alive with the win over Scotland, but it’s likely their fate will have already been sealed by the time they walk out for the coin toss in Friday’s final match of the Super Sixes. In addition to a win over Afghanistan, the men in green would need the UAE to pull off an upset against Zimbabwe. In the event of a washout in the Zimbabwe game however, a win for Ireland would see them claim the second World Cup ticket on the competition's countback rule. 

5th: Afghanistan (4 points)

Super Sixes: Played 4 | Won 2 | Lost 2 | NRR 0.343

The run home: March 23: v Ireland (Harare Sports Club)

After failing to carry any points through to the Super Sixes stage, Afghanistan kept their slim hopes alive with back-to-back wins against the Windies and UAE respectively. Everyone's second-favourite team also need the UAE to defeat Zimbabwe, which would leave Friday's clash as a winner-takes-all contest. As with Ireland, a washed-out Zimbabwe match would also give Afghanistan hope; a win over Ireland would then see them progress on the competition's countback rule. 

6th: United Arab Emirates (0 points)

Super Sixes: Played 4 | Won 0 | Lost 4 | NRR -2.381

The run home: March 22: v Zimbabwe (Harare Sports Club)

The World Cup dream is well and truly over for the UAE, but they’ll still be desperate to salvage a Super Sixers victory from the tournament that saw them retain their ODI status for a further four years.