Conventional wisdom suggests batting first is the surest path to victory for Australia or South Africa, but other factors are at play
Runs on the board? Analysing a crucial semi-final call
‘Runs on the board’.
If in doubt, that has been the fallback option for captains at the toss ahead of high-pressure one-dayers.
Given the most convincing wins of both Australia's and South Africa's World Cup campaigns have come when they have been defending totals, that approach could well be the surest path to victory in their Eden Gardens semi-final.
The Proteas have racked up four totals greater than 350 in this tournament – 5-428 v Sri Lanka, 7-399 v England, 5-382 v Bangladesh and 4-357 v New Zealand – while the Aussies have done so three times -– 9-367 v Pakistan, 8-399 v the Netherlands and 388 v NZ.
Yet both teams head into a legacy-defining contest with fresh belief they might be able to turn the tables if the coin does not land in their favour, or if their skipper is bold enough to bowl.
Forecast rain for Thursday in Kolkata could be an additional factor in that decision.
Reeling in a 300-plus total was the final checkpoint for Pat Cummins' side in a seven-game World Cup winning streak.
Their successful Mitch Marsh-led pursuit of Bangladesh's 8-306 Pune marked the highest men’s ODI total the Aussies have chased in more than four years and only the second instance of a team chasing more than 300 at this tournament.
Of course, they had mowed down 292 against Afghanistan only a few days earlier. But even Cummins concedes that was an outlier. Glenn Maxwell beat the Afghans – the rest of the team were merely bystanders.
"I think chasing 300 is something new for this tournament. It felt like – outside of Maxi's innings – it felt like everything is starting to click together," Cummins told the host broadcaster on Saturday.
South Africa too believe they can handle the pressure of a big chase in a win-or-go-home contest.
The knock on Temba Bavuma's men has been that they are a formidable side when batting first and a merely decent one when batting second.
As David Miller put it, "I think it's just comparing to what we have done batting first, which has been exceptional. We haven't been horrific chasing, it's just been one or two games where we slipped up, which is part of the game."
But their capitulation in their top-of-the-table clash with India, getting rolled for 83 chasing 327, added fuel to the fire, and they have admitted it was something they sought to address in their final group match against Afghanistan, who chose to bat first.
"Coming into this match we wanted to put ourselves in that situation so if we won the toss we would have bowled anyway, because we wanted to put ourselves in that situation," said Rassie van der Dussen, whose 76no ensured they chased Afghanistan's 244 with 15 balls to spare.
Kolkata has not been kind to teams who insert their opponents.
Only twice in its last 11 ODIs has the chasing side won (one of those coming at this World Cup when Pakistan rolled Bangladesh for 204) and neither of those were by choice; the toss winner batted first on both those occasions.
There has however been no discernible advantage to doing either discipline first in this tournament overall. With one group game to play, sides chasing have won 23 matches compared to 21 for the setting team.
One deterrent to bowling first however is the effect that India's intense heat has had on players at this World Cup.
Both Marsh and Maxwell had to push through cramping in their recent run-chase knocks after each exerted significant energy bowling and fielding through the hottest part of the day.
"The biggest challenge I've seen from a few other teams, watching games on the TV as well, is it's so hot and so energy-sapping," said Sean Abbott, who has spent long periods of time on the ground as Australia's 12th man in an attempt to give his teammates a breather.
Australia know South Africa's bowlers will provide a more comprehensive challenge than they got in their day match against Bangladesh, before evening dew set in on a Pune road and against a diminutive, spin-heavy attack missing Shakib al-Hasan.
The Aussies got a glimpse of the potency of Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen and Lungi Ngidi when they were skittled for 177, chasing 312, on a juiced-up Lucknow surface under lights four-and-a-half weeks ago.
That remains their most recent defeat. The Proteas have since added Gerard Coetzee, the fiery quick who broke Travis Head's hand in September, as a regular member of their XI.
The Bangladesh and Afghanistan games aside, Australia's only other win chasing at this tournament was a nervy pursuit of Sri Lanka's modest 209.
"I guess it is (a confidence boost), I don't think we've chased too much have we?" Marsh said of the Bangladesh win.
"There's times when we've chased really well. In India sometimes it can be conditions-based when the wicket gets tougher, but ultimately I think we're a really well-rounded team and we've played a lot of great cricket over the last 18 months.
"We go into a semi-final knowing that the toss is 50-50 but we'll back ourselves to hopefully win chasing or setting."
Australia's 2023 ODI World Cup fixtures
October 8: Lost to India by six wickets
October 12: Lost to South Africa by 134 runs
October 16: Beat Sri Lanka by five wickets
October 20: Beat Pakistan by 62 runs
October 25: Beat Netherlands by 309 runs
October 28: Beat New Zealand by five runs
November 4: Beat England by 33 runs
November 7: Beat Afghanistan by three wickets
November 11: Beat Bangladesh by eight wickets
November 16: Second semi-final v South Africa, Kolkata, 7.30pm AEDT
November 19: Final, Ahmedabad, 7.30pm AEDT
Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Sean Abbott, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Marnus Labuschagne, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, David Warner, Adam Zampa
2023 World Cup standings
| Team | M | W | L | T | N/R | NRR | Ded. | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
IND
|
9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.57 | 0 | 18 |
|
2
SA
|
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.261 | 0 | 14 |
|
3
AUS
|
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.841 | 0 | 14 |
|
4
NZ
|
9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.743 | 0 | 10 |
|
5
PAK
|
9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -0.199 | 0 | 8 |
|
6
AFG
|
9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -0.336 | 0 | 8 |
|
7
ENG
|
9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -0.572 | 0 | 6 |
|
8
BAN
|
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1.087 | 0 | 4 |
|
9
SL
|
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1.419 | 0 | 4 |
|
10
NED
|
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1.825 | 0 | 4 |
M: Matches played
W: Wins
L: Losses
T: Ties
N/R: No results
NRR: Net Run Rate
Ded.: Deductions
PTS: Total points