More than halfway through the Super 12 stage, there are scenarios aplenty as we get to the business end with teams jostling for a semi-final spot
How your team can make the World Cup semi-finals
UPDATE: View the latest semi-final scenarios here
We have now passed the halfway mark of the Super 12 stage of the T20 World Cup, and the semi-final picture is starting to come into focus for contenders.
Defending champions Australia have ticked off their first goal by beating Ireland but still face a must-win game against Afghanistan on Friday in Adelaide, but their final four fortunes could well be decided by other results in Group 1.
Image Id: 4749C3C6E36B4C839CE24F9E1D26FF5CAnd South Africa sent a warning on Sunday night by defeating fellow Group 2 heavyweight India, while Pakistan are clinging to the faintest hopes they can still advance.
And for those teams whose semi-final ambitions might already be beyond them, the carrot of automatic qualification to the 2024 T20 World Cup means there's still plenty to play for.
It's a folly in this climate to try and predict how much, if at all, weather will interfere with matches, so we've assumed no more washouts. With 12 matches remaining, we take a team-by-team look at their semi-final chances.
Group 1
New Zealand
Results so far: beat Australia, washout with Afghanistan, beat Sri Lanka
Games to come: England (Tuesday, Gabba), Ireland (Friday, Adelaide)
Top of Group 1 and in hot form, the Black Caps can do Australia the biggest of favours by knocking over England at the Gabba on Tuesday night. That would not only lock themselves into a semi-final spot, but also clear the way for Australia to make the final four.
Australia
Results so far: Lost to NZ, beat Sri Lanka, washout with England, beat Ireland
Game to come: Afghanistan (Friday, Adelaide)
That heavy defeat first up to the Black Caps hurt, primarily because it did so much damage to Australia's net run rate (NRR). But the defending champions have long preached peaking at the back-end of the tournament, and showed they were trending in exactly that direction with a comfortable win over Ireland on Monday night at the Gabba. Although, at 5-25, Australia may consider a chance for a huge net run rate boost to have slipped by as they eventually bowled Ireland out for 137. Presuming they can now account for Afghanistan in their final fixture, the semi-finals remain within reach. But there will be few keener observers of the England-New Zealand showdown on Tuesday night in Brisbane. Should NZ beat England it would do the Aussies a massive favour and essentially clear the path for them to book a semi-final spot. If England beat the Kiwis, deciding the semi-final spots will come down to net run rate. Australia's NRR has recovered from a disastrous -4.450 after the Kiwi loss with big wins over Sri Lanka and Ireland, but is still -0.304 with one game to go.
England
Results so far: beat Afghanistan, lost to Ireland (DLS), washout with Australia
Games to come: New Zealand (Tuesday, Gabba), Sri Lanka (Saturday, SCG)
The washout against Australia robbed the tournament of a blockbuster showdown, but it made Tuesday's clash with the Black Caps a tournament-shaping game. If England lose, they can essentially kiss their semi-final hopes goodbye, and would need the Aussies to slip-up against Afghanistan to make it through. But if England beat NZ, they then face another must-win affair against Sri Lanka in their final game. Prevail in both of those, and then it will come down to NRR. Given England play Sri Lanka after the Aussies have completed their group stage games, Jos Buttler's men hold a slight advantage there in that they will know exactly what they need to do to reach the final four.
Ireland
Results so far: lost to Sri Lanka, beat England (DLS), washout with Afghanistan, lost to Australia
Game to come: New Zealand, (Friday, Adelaide)
Their semi-final dream is officially over after being belted by the Aussies, and things will not get any easier for the Irish with New Zealand to come. Their goal now is a good showing against New Zealand but unless they can cause a second major upset and win that game they will finish no higher than fifth, meaning they will have a nervous wait to see if they will automatically qualify for the 2024 T20 World Cup (more on that process at the bottom of this article).
Sri Lanka
Results so far: beat Ireland, lost to Australia, lost to NZ
Games to come: Afghanistan (Tuesday, Gabba), England (Saturday, SCG)
It will take a miraculous set of circumstances for Sri Lanka to qualify for the semi-finals following two defeats to Australia and New Zealand already, but they can still spoil the party for others. Their game against Afghanistan is important as they will want to finish in the top four of Group 1 to ensure they automatically qualify for the 2024 T20 World Cup. But their final game against England could yet be Australia's final roll of the dice to make the final four. The SCG will suit Sri Lanka and they will fancy their chances against England, for whom it will be a must-win affair.
Afghanistan
Results so far: Lost to England, washout v New Zealand, washout v Ireland
Games to come: Sri Lanka (Tuesday, Gabba), Australia (Friday, Adelaide)
The big wet in Melbourne has effectively ruined Afghanistan's tournament with two washouts for matches scheduled at the MCG currently leaving them at the foot of Group 1. The early forecast for their Gabba clash with Sri Lanka is not promising either, but that shapes as their best chance to land a win, given they will face a rampant Australia hell bent on improving their NRR in their final game.
Group 2
South Africa
Results so far: washout with Zimbabwe, beat Bangladesh, beat India
Games to come: Pakistan (Thursday, SCG), Netherlands (Sunday, Adelaide)
The Proteas already have one foot in the semi-finals, and if not for rain in Hobart would likely be unbeaten with an even stronger claim. Their win over India was a resounding warning to the opposition, and one more win is needed to secure a semi-final berth.
India
Results so far: beat Pakistan, beat Netherlands, lost to South Africa
Games to come: Bangladesh (Wednesday, Adelaide), Zimbabwe (Sunday, MCG)
The victory over Pakistan had them riding high until the Proteas brought them back down to earth. Pakistan's stumbles elsewhere, and winnable games to come mean a semi-final spot is within grasp, but will it be as first or second seed in their group?
Bangladesh
Results so far: beat Netherlands, lost to South Africa, beat Zimbabwe
Games to come: India (Wednesday, Adelaide), Pakistan (Sunday, Adelaide)
They face a difficult run home, but if the Tigers can beat both India and Pakistan then a semi-final spot would be theirs. Sounds simple enough on paper ... but Bangladesh scraped home against Zimbabwe amid final-ball drama, and while India did show a weakness against South Africa, Bangladesh will be wary of a response. If they lose both matches, they'd be in danger of finishing fifth in the group and then would face a nervous wait to see if they could secure automatic qualification for the 2024 T20 World Cup.
Zimbabwe
Results so far: washout with South Africa, beat Pakistan, lost to Bangladesh
Games to come: Netherlands (Wednesday, Adelaide), India (Sunday, MCG)
The Chevrons have given a great account of themselves in this tournament, winning through the first round and proving no walkover in the Super 12, derailing Pakistan's campaign and coming oh-so-close to beating Bangladesh as well. They will fancy themselves against the Dutch, and with nothing to lose loom as a dangerous opponent for India. If they can pull off a win in both remaining games a semi-final spot would be theirs. They could also play a pivotal role in Pakistan's slim chances of an unlikely semi-final berth
Pakistan
Results so far: lost to India, lost to Zimbabwe, beat Netherlands
Games to come: South Africa (Thursday, SCG), Bangladesh (Sunday, Adelaide)
The last-gasp loss to India hurt, but the defeat to Zimbabwe is really where their campaign came unstuck. But Pakistan fans will be clinging to hope that they remain a mathematical possibility of reaching the semi-finals. Pakistan need to win both remaining games, handsomely, and at the same time hope for a series of unlikely events to all fall in their favour. Firstly, they need the Dutch to beat Zimbabwe on Wednesday afternoon, otherwise they will be eliminated before they next take the field. Beating an in-form South Africa outfit will be no mean feat, and in this tournament a win against Bangladesh can't be guaranteed either. But if they can manage two wins there, they will then need Zimbabwe to knock off India on Sunday evening in Adelaide. If that happens, it will be down to NRR with the arch-rivals both finishing with three wins apiece.
Netherlands
Results so far: lost to Bangladesh, lost to India, lost to Pakistan
Games to come: Zimbabwe (Wednesday, Adelaide), South Africa (Sunday, Adelaide)
The Dutch side will be targeting Wednesday's match with Zimbabwe as their best hope for a win in the Super 12 stage, and as explained above, will have all of Pakistan supporting them. They face the South Africans in their final game on Sunday, and the very real prospect of going winless in the Super 12 stage looms. Should that happen it's likely they will face returning to the regional qualifiers for the 2024 T20 World Cup.
2024 T20 World Cup qualification explained
Results in this current tournament will go a long way to determining the line-up for the next T20 World Cup, to be co-hosted by the USA and West Indies in 2024. That tournament will be expanded to feature 20 teams for the first time, with 12 teams to be awarded automatic qualification.
The two co-hosts will get immediate entry, as well as the top eight teams from the current tournament in Australia – ie, those finishing in the top four in each Super 12 group.
The final two automatic qualification spots will be the next two highest ranked teams on the ICC's T20 team rankings at November 14 (the day after the current tournament concludes).
That puts extra emphasis on matches like Afghanistan v Sri Lanka, and Netherlands v Zimbabwe in the current Super 12 stage.
The remaining eight spots at the World Cup will come via regional qualifier tournaments with the top two teams from events in Africa, Asia and Europe winning through, as well as one apiece from the Americas and East Asia Pacific groups.