Age not wearying Warner as he bucks opening trend

In effectively and emphatically answering many of the questions that had swirled around him during a Test century drought of almost three years, the one that remains unanswered after David Warner's breakthrough double-ton today is 'how much longer can he keep playing?'.

Warner himself has repeatedly spoken of the unsustainable nature of the schedule for an all-format international player, and cited the needs of his family as a key criterion in any decision about which of the three forms of the game he will first abandon, and when.

But what is starkly clear in the wake of today's often audacious 200 (retired cramped) made across almost six hours in enervating heat and against some hostile fast bowling is that decision is now wholly his to make, without the shoulder tap from selectors that is oft-feared by players of his vintage.

At age 36, Warner has reached the point in his playing days where many batters – and particularly openers – can experience a demonstrable downturn in their productivity and consistency as the foibles of middle-age begin to manifest.

That reality is borne out by data that shows for those who have opened regularly in Tests – an occupation that entails meeting bowlers and pitches at their freshest, and balls when hardest and most prone to misbehave – it's the window between the 35th and 36th birthdays that is toughest to navigate.

Of the almost 100 Test batters to have opened in 10 innings or more beyond the age of 30 over the past 145 years, almost one-third (32 per cent) show averages of 45 or above.

But for those who fit that same criteria between ages 35 and 36, that ratio plummets to 19 per cent, suggesting there is some unstoppable decline in physical acuity that takes place in the mid-30s.

Warner's career record prior to today was beginning to bear out that statistical quirk.

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In the period between October 2016 (when he turned 30) to five years later, the left-hander plundered more than 3000 runs at an average a tick above 44 and with a career-high score of 335no against Pakistan at Adelaide.

But the 23 innings that followed his 34th birthday in October 2021 were decidedly lean, with 611 at 27.8  without a solitary century prior to producing one of his most memorable Test knocks today.

The even better news for Warner, after today's double ton that he celebrated as euphorically as any of the 24 that preceded it, is the statistical blip that affects openers in their mid-30s seems to disappear for those who successfully plough on to age 37 and beyond.

While there's not many modern-era Test openers who stay in that demanding job as they approach 40 – England duo Geoffrey Boycott and Graham Gooch, along with West Indies' Gordon Greenidge are the most recent to continue into their fourth decade – it's not uncharted territory.

Warner's long-time opening partner Chris Rogers is among the select cohort of regular Test openers who negotiated the valley of decline and revelled in his autumn years, where he returned an average just shy of 50 as a 37-year-old.

Rogers conceded today he began to notice the impact of advancing age towards the twilight of his Test career that ended in 2015 just weeks shy of his 38th birthday, but was motivated to keep playing because of his late arrival as a Test regular two years earlier.

"I just felt like the bowling was getting faster, even though the speed gun wasn't saying that," Rogers told cricket.com.au today.

"I also had a bit of a fear against fast, short bowling towards the end and I was probably struggling to react as quickly but Davey plays that differently to me.

"He's a different kind of athlete.

"He's got a lot of fast-twitch fibres and he moves quickly, and he's always picked up length really well.

"Davey's also achieved just about everything he wants I would imagine, but he might just love the contest, and that's what drives him every day as motivation.

"Only he can say."

Another Australia left-hander, Mike Hussey, was not deployed as a specialist opener in Test cricket but (like Rogers) didn't secure a place in Australia's starting line-up until in his 30s, which meant he was driven to extend his career as long as possible.

Hussey was approaching 38 when he called time on his international tenure, and averaged more than 50 in Test matches from age 35 onwards.

Not surprisingly, he's not sold on the thesis international batters lose their mettle once they move into their mid-30s.

"I don't subscribe to the idea that your reactions go, or your eyes start to fail," Hussey told cricket.com.au today.

"My belief is that it's in your mind, and if you start to think 'oh, I'm getting a bit slow' or 'I'm not picking up the ball early enough' then you're thinking about all the wrong stuff rather than just focusing fully on the ball.

"I felt like I was running slower, both between wickets and out on the field as I got older, so I definitely felt I was slowing down in that respect, but I didn’t feel much different when batting.

"It was only when my head wasn't concentrating on what I should have been concentrating on, and I was worried about getting out and worried about what the pitch or the ball was doing rather than focusing fully on the ball that I found it difficult."

As Rogers sees it, Warner has another significant dimension to his game that should ensure he gets to choose the timing of his exit rather than being counselled to quit by selectors.

His career scoring rate of more than 71 runs per 100 balls faced places him in rare company among Test openers, with only India's Virender Sehwag (83.1), Australia's Victor Trumper (78.9) and Pakistan's Shahid Afridi (74.6) compiling runs quicker among those to have tackled the new ball 20 or more times.

As a consequence, Warner is integral to the way Australia plays and sets up games by enabling the team total to build at a rate that allows bowlers sufficient time to chisel out 20 opposition wickets.

Rogers claimed selectors will often move on an incumbent player if they believe it's opportune to regenerate or to install an alternative they see as having a long-term future.

In the absence of any such candidate who plays in a manner similar to Warner, and on the evidence presented today by Australia's second-most prolific Test opener of all time (behind Matthew Hayden), Rogers can't envisage there's any appetite to move him on.

"Davey's a bit unique in that way because he plays like no other," he said.

"He scores so quickly, I don't think selectors have any real interest in seeing him retire and having to find someone else.

"The best version of Davey, when he plays like he did from the start of this innings, is different to just about everyone else in world cricket.

"I reckon I was pretty replaceable, whereas he's not easy to replace."

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Certainly his long-time teammate – and partner in today's epic 239-run partnership for the third wicket that swung the second NRMA Insurance Test heavily in Australia's favour – Steve Smith believes Warner could continue in the Baggy Green Cap for years to come.

"I don't see why not," Smith said tonight when asked if he felt Warner could keep plying his trade into his late 30s.

"He's fit and I don't see any reason why he can't continue playing.

"He was certainly seeing the ball pretty well today, so fingers crossed he can keep playing well and he can play for as long as he likes."

Men's NRMA Insurance Test Series v South Africa

First Test: Australia won by six wickets

Dec 26-30: Second Test, MCG, 10.30am AEDT

Jan 4-8: Third Test, SCG, 10.30am AEDT

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Lance Morris, Nathan Lyon, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, David Warner

South Africa squad: Dean Elgar (c), Temba Bavuma, Gerald Coetzee, Theunis de Bruyn, Sarel Eree, Simon Harmer, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Heinrich Klaasen, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Kagiso Rabada, Rassie van der Dussen, Kyle Verreynne, Lizaad Williams, Khaya Zondo

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