Reverse swing brilliance sets up Australia's victory push

Only a batting performance of hitherto unseen magnitude – or some sort of natural calamity – can seemingly stop Australia's charge to victory over Pakistan in Karachi after a stunning bowling effort turned the second Test on its head.

Having chosen to defy critics and accepted wisdom by batting into day three, Australia skipper Pat Cummins eventually halted his team's innings at an elephantine 9(dec)-556 and then saw his bowlers skittle their rivals for 148 inside two sessions through the devastating use of reverse swing.

Cummins then incited further disbelief in some quarters by declining to enforce the follow-on despite holding a lead of 408, and by stumps that advantage had blown out to 489 for the loss of David Warner (7) with Usman Khawaja again unbeaten on 35 and Marnus Labuschagne 37no.

Only three times in Test history have teams banked a bigger first innings lead without making their opponents follow-on, but a cursory examination of Cummins' rationale indicates he was never likely to entertain that option.

Not only does the compacted schedule of this Qantas Tour (three Tests in as many weeks) dictate maintenance of bowling stocks is essential, but Karachi's stifling heat would have rendered back-to-back fielding stints unfeasible while keeping Pakistan's weary troops out in it becomes a tactical advantage.

That was shown when the flagging hosts turfed a couple of tough catches in the final hour as Australia's batters scored at more than four runs an over.

Then there's the fleeting, but narrowly possible prospect that the only way Australia could squander their position of dominance is to have Pakistan somehow bat for the best part of two days to gain a small lead and then put the visitors under pressure when the pitch is at its most ornery on day five.

As it is, Australia will likely foreclose their second innings by lunch tomorrow which would grant them around 150 overs in which to dismiss a shellshocked Pakistan again in the knowledge the longest fourth innings produced in Karachi was New Zealand's 80 (eight-ball) overs to secure a draw in 1976.

The highest successful fourth innings run chase at the ground is Pakistan's 9-315 to defeat Australia in the thrilling finish to their meeting in 1994.

Should Pakistan survive almost two days having posted their team's lowest-ever first innings total in a Test at the National Stadium then it will be their genius rather than Australia's strategy that dominates discussions.

From the evidence tendered by Mitchell Starc (3-29) as well as Cummins and Cameron Green who gained damaging reverse swing within 20 overs of Australia's bowling innings starting today, plus the arrival of Mitchell Swepson (2-32) as a Test bowler, any result other than a Pakistan defeat seems fanciful.

Starc tore open the game today when he ripped out first Test high-scorer Azhar Ali and the luckless Fawad Alam with consecutive deliveries, and Swepson's day that began so memorably with a game-changing run out ended with a prized first Test wicket, Pakistan skipper (and top scorer) Babar Azam.

And while the degree of swing Australia's quicks were able to impart on the worn ball – an art that has historically been associated with Pakistan's pace men – was decisive, the most glaring reverse was the productivity decrease by the home team's batters.

After spending more than 14 hours in the field amid the steamy Karachi heat that has peaked around 36C throughout this Test, it was understandable Pakistan's batters were weary of foot and fuzzy of mind when they finally got to batting.

But even allowing for those mitigating factors, the run out of opener Abdullah Shafique that paved the way for Pakistan's wholesale top-order collapse was inexcusable.

The newly minted first-wicket combination – which had proved so successful in Rawalpindi with century stands in both innings – were provided a clear warning of the dangers inherent in sneaking singles just three balls before Shafique's brain fade.

That was when Pat Cummins gathered the ball at mid-off and threw down the bowlers' end stumps with similar athleticism to the freakish run out he pulled off to remove India's Cheteshwar Pujara at Adelaide Oval in 2018.

Imam ul Haq might have beaten home Cummins' effort today, but the lesson was not learned by his younger partner who called for a run when Imam squirted an outside edge to backward point where Swepson – clad in pristine Baggy Green Cap – swooped and hit the stumps in a single motion.

The Pakistan pair had appeared largely untroubled until that costly lapse, and Imam and new partner Azhar Ali safely negotiated the remaining six overs to lunch without further loss before the wheels came quickly off after the break.

Certainly the hosts came out with bristling intent to start the second session, despite being 518 runs adrift.

Azhar advanced down the pitch to the second delivery bowled after lunch, bowled by Nathan Lyon, and with a carefree swing of his bat landed it beyond the boundary rope at long-off.

Imam seemed emboldened by his senior teammate's defiant blow, and attempted to lift the final ball of that same over in similar fashion but the bat seemed to skew in the left-hander's grip and it floated at head-height to Cummins at long-on.

While Lyon's breakthrough was pivotal given Imam's scores of 157 and 111no in Rawalpindi, it was an occurrence in the following over that encouraged Australia to radically and fruitfully change plans.

In his first over post-lunch, Cummins tailed a delivery into his rival skipper Babar Azam that crashed into the batter's boot and prompted Australia to lodge a review when their appeal was turned down.

The video referee eventually judged the ball had made concurrent contact with Babar's bat and pad which granted him immunity, but the sight of the ball barely 20 overs old starting to demonstrably swing saw spin ditched and pace take over.

Cummins had predicted reverse swing would be a vital factor in Karachi, and no sooner had he brought Starc into the attack to replace Lyon than he was proved unerringly right.

After firing a few from around the wicket into right-handed Azhar, Starc hung out a full, wide ball that the top-scorer from Rawalpindi could not resist and he squeezed a catch that flew fast and low to second slip where Green plucked it as if it were a training drill.

Image Id: 00BBCCD2C3884BB786FA70E74BCE4955 Image Caption: Starc was supreme in the middle session // Getty

With his team 3-60 and Starc swinging the ball menacingly at pace, Fawad Alam – notionally an all-rounder who was not asked to bowl across the preceding 330 overs Pakistan bowled in the two matches and had not been required to bat – could not have picked a tougher time to enter the series.

The 36-year-old, who spent 11 years out of Pakistan's Test team before earning a recall in 2020, took guard with a curious stance that resembled that of Australia's current selection chair George Bailey at the tail of his career, except with his chest pointing towards Starc as he steamed in.

As events transpired, it was appropriate Fawad was essentially facing the Pakistan dressing room towards which Starc was running because that's where we was headed after his first ball dipped late towards his front foot and trapped him in front for a golden duck.

Starc missed out on a hat-trick when keeper Mohammad Rizwan was unable to lay bat on a delivery that essentially behaved like a 140kph leg break.

Image Id: CDDBC96E48A240719BABB96D66809119 Image Caption: Cummins picked up the big wicket of Rizwan // Getty

But having toiled to take four wickets from almost 240 overs in the first Test, Australia had doubled their haul in the space of 12 and a half overs in the second and even the chance off Rizwan that Steve Smith missed when diving in front of Carey at slip only cost a couple of runs.

Rizwan was dismissed in near-identical circumstances from Cummins' next over, and when allrounder Faheem Ashraf – in consultation with Babar at the bowler's end – chose not to review an lbw call that proved to be shaving leg stump, the home team was in tatters at 6-81.

In choosing to bat beyond two days, Australia were clearly of the view that maximising every minute on a pitch that was destined to deteriorate was a rolled gold investment and they might have hoped to snare five or six Pakistan wickets before stumps today.

Suddenly, they had pocketed that many before tea and snuck a bonus extra when off-spinner Sajid Khan was deemed not to have nicked Starc to Carey but the Australia keeper was sure he'd heard a noise and was shown to be correct after he convinced his skipper to review.

Pakistan staggered to 100 but a formal surrender arrived soon after when Hasan Ali was called for a quick single by his lone-hand captain and – after starting out, stopping, and then almost stalling before getting into gear – was run out by Labuschagne's rifle throw from cover.

As the third umpire tried to source video evidence of what everyone watching already knew, Hasan kept running all the way from the centre wicket to the boundary rope doubtless suspecting he would need to limber up for another bowling stint very shortly.

He was joined in the sheds soon after by Babar who, fast running out of batting partners, chased some quick runs but miscued a lofted drive off Swepson whose first Test wicket was memorably caught by his Queensland skipper Khawaja who had also presented him with his cap last Saturday.

Even a last-wicket flurry that brought the highest partnership of Pakistan's meek response (30 off 41 balls) couldn't cover the harsh reality that only a radical revision of Karachi's flawless forecast over coming days offers the most plausible means of somehow saving this Test.

Today's events also effectively silenced anyone who questioned Cummins' tactics in Australia's elongated first innings.

Not only did he opt to continue batting into the third morning, he stayed out there for 35 minutes during which time the tailenders piled on another 51 runs from nine overs of which the skipper contributed an unbeaten 34 with three sweetly struck sixes.

Australia's 556 represented the highest innings total they've posted in Asia since the second Test against Bangladesh in Chittagong in 2006, when night watchman Jason Gillespie contributed 201 of their 4-581.

The 189 overs required to post that tally was also the longest innings (in balls faced) Australia has endured since the 1993 Ashes campaign in the UK where they declared after facing more than 190 overs at both Lord's and Headingley.

And those Tests – which were also the most recent time an Australia men's team had won the toss and batted first, across three days – both resulted in innings victories.

Qantas Tour of Pakistan 2022

Pakistan squad: Babar Azam (c), Mohammad Rizwan (vc), Abdullah Shafique, Azhar Ali, Faheem Ashraf, Fawad Alam, Haris Rauf, Hasan Ali, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Wasim Jnr, Naseem Shah, Nauman Ali, Sajid Khan, Saud Shakeel, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Shan Masood, Zahid Mahmood.

Australia Test squad: Pat Cummins (c), Ashton Agar, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Steve Smith (vc), Mitchell Starc, Mark Steketee, Mitchell Swepson, David Warner. On standby: Sean Abbott, Brendan Doggett, Nic Maddinson, Matthew Renshaw

First Test: Match drawn

March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi

March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore

Australia ODI and T20 squad: Aaron Finch (c), Sean Abbott, Ashton Agar, Jason Behrendorff, Alex Carey, Nathan Ellis, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Marnus Labuschagne, Mitchell Marsh, Ben McDermott, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa

March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi

March 31: Second ODI, Rawalpindi

April 2: Third ODI, Rawalpindi

April 5: Only T20I, Rawalpindi

All matches to be broadcast in Australia on Fox Cricket and Kayo Sports