Key metrics that could decide the World Cup

Catches win matches.

We've all heard the cliché. But given champions England and runners up New Zealand both dropped stacks of catches at the 2019 ODI World Cup (15 and 20 respectively), let's look at some numbers that actually have a bearing on team success at the 50-over showpiece. 

After some deep-diving, here are the key statistics that will decide this World Cup.

Batting strike rate in the Powerplay

Scoring heavily in the first 10 overs of the innings is a crucial part of World Cup success.

Getting out of the blocks with a bang at the 50-over World Cup correlates with winning teams more than high strike rates at any other stage of the innings.

Across the last three tournaments, the top two highest striking teams in the Powerplay have made the final each time, with New Zealand in 2019 being the exception.

As only two fielders are allowed outside the inner circle and with a hard, new ball at each end, it is a terrific time to bat.

Although the Kiwis were sluggish in this period during the 2019 World Cup, their 2-116 from the first 10 overs against England in 2015 is the record Powerplay score in all men's ODI World Cups.

Fast finishing teams don't always go far, but fast starting teams do.

How are Australia tracking?

Thanks to David Warner and Mitch Marsh's fast starts, Australia's strike rate in the first 10 overs was 108.33 in the one-dayers against India. The home side started even faster, going at 121.11.

However, if Australia maintain a strike rate of above 100 they'll be in good shape, with only four teams in the last three tournaments maintaining that sort of rate, three of which made the final.

Bowling strike rate in the middle overs (11-40) 

While getting wickets in the Powerplay is important, across the last three tournaments it doesn't correlate to World Cup success.

India especially were very poor in this area when they lifted the trophy in 2011, ranking ninth in that category for that World Cup.

Getting regular wickets in the middle overs seems to be a better yardstick, as batters generally take fewer risks and look to set up the innings up through this period.

How are Australia tracking?

Australia took 11 wickets at a strike rate of 49.09 in the recent three-match series against India, which is almost exactly what their rate was during the 2011 World Cup (48.68). However, Australia's frontline bowlers were rotated in and out during last month's series so you would expect that number to come down in the tournament proper.

For comparison, India's middle overs strike rate in the series last month was 33.57 as Australia's middle order struggled to put together big partnerships.

Australia's most reliable wicket-taker between overs 11-40 since the 2019 World Cup has been Adam Zampa by some margin, with his 58 wickets (strike rate 28.72) a long way ahead of the second-placed Josh Hazlewood on 16 (strike rate 39).

Batting strike against spin 

Teams who have conquered the spinners have done well at the recent ODI World Cups. The stats say scoring quickly against the quicks is less important than ticking it over against the slow bowlers, generally the bowlers who are tasked with controlling the scoring rate in the middle overs.

And these figures are consistent across all conditions – India, Australia and then England – with the eventual champions at the top of the pile on each occasion.

How are Australia tracking?

Australia's strike rate against spin was higher than India's in the series last month, with the visitors (96.87) bettering the hosts (93.00) by a touch over three runs per 100 balls.

Steve Smith (109.09), Marnus Labuschagne (106.06) and David Warner (102.86) all showed great signs against the slower bowlers while Josh Hazlewood (144.44) was a surprise and led all comers, taking particular toll against Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin in the second ODI in Rajkot.

The dew factor 

Just how crucial will winning the toss be? And what will be the preferred method of attack for teams in this World Cup?

Will we see a similar trend to the 2021 T20 World Cup? At that tournament, held in UAE, teams who batted second won 64.4 per cent of the time. Dubai was especially one-sided, with the team who batted first winning only once from 13 matches.

Evening dew is not unusual in several cities around India this time of year, with the possibility it could throw up a huge advantage in certain locations.

Dewy conditions occur when the air temperature drops to a certain point (which changes depending on the humidity), causing the moisture in the air to change from gaseous form to liquid. This leaves the outfield very damp, soaking the ball and making life tougher for the bowlers.

India coach Rahul Dravid admitted he's "no expert" when it comes to dew but is expecting it to have an impact during the World Cup.

"It's a big country, India, and there are many venues. So it's hard to say that it's going to be the same everywhere," Dravid told reporters after India's ODI against Australia in Rajkot.

"Certainly, as the tournament goes on, at some venues it will be a factor. And in some it may not.

"But there are venues, in the northern part of India, as we get towards November, certainly there will be some dew."

The 2011 ODI World Cup, held in India, offered no obvious advantage to sides batting first or second.

Throughout the entire tournament, teams batting first won on 24 occasions with teams batting second winning 23 (along with one tie and one no result).

However, when looking at just the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final, the team chasing won five of seven matches.

One thing to note is that World Cup took place in February and March, with 2023 scheduled for the opposite end of the calendar.

Despite all the recent trips to India by the Australian team over recent years (not to mention all the IPLs), Australia's most recent tour here in October was back in 2017.

"I'm not sure what to expect for the whole tournament in this time of year," Australian batter Marnus Labuschagne told the Unplayable Podcast.

"I don't think I've been in India ever in this time. So it'll be interesting how that unfolds."

Australia's 2023 ODI World Cup fixtures

Warm-up match: No result v Netherlands

Warm-up match: Defeated Pakistan by 14 runs

October 8: v India, Chennai (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

October 12: v South Africa, Lucknow (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

October 16: v Sri Lanka, Lucknow (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

October 20: v Pakistan, Bengaluru (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

October 25: v Netherlands, Delhi (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

October 28: v New Zealand, Dharamsala, 4pm AEDT

November 4: v England, Ahmedabad (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

November 7: v Afghanistan, Mumbai (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

November 11: v Bangladesh, Pune, 4pm AEDT

November 15: First semi-final, Mumbai (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

November 16: Second semi-final, Kolkata (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

November 19: Final, Ahmedabad (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Sean Abbott, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Marnus Labuschagne, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, David Warner, Adam Zampa