How the Bazballers were blind to Ashes warnings

Amid the extended phony war build-up to this Ashes, the warnings were there for England – if only they were willing to heed them.

They came from respectable figures, too. England greats, and great Australian opponents, among them.

But across three Tests – and a record-equalling few 11 days – England's struggles seemed to move from those of misadventure to those of muddled minds, eternally in search of the miracle that ultimately revealed itself to be little more than a mirage.

That their helter-skelter Bazball approach in Perth had been swapped out for a far more traditional strategy by the time the series reached Adelaide told us all we needed to know about their monumental failure in planning.

This was not how it was supposed to be. For months, and years, the Bazball masterplan had been centred upon shock and awe.

"The thing that I'm most excited about is going (to Australia) with a completely different approach as a playing group," said Joe Root in early October. "We're going to be able to hit them with something quite different in terms of our bowling attack, and the opportunity to potentially play three or four bowlers that bowl 90mph-plus for a sustained period of time.

"It's not like we are going to go there with the same formula and expect different results. We are going to go there and try and do it in a slightly different way, which is really exciting."

Let's take a look back at what the experts had to say in the month prior to the series. 

October 18.

Former England captain Graham Gooch, while understanding of today's packed cricket calendar, is adamant that better preparation has to be shoehorned in for England ahead of a series that Brendon McCullum would come to label "the biggest of all of our lives".

"The preparation of playing one game against your own guys doesn't cut it for me … (and) you need to play against Australians," said Gooch, who was England's batting coach on the 2010-11 Ashes tour – the last time they won a Test, let alone a series, in Australia.

"Because you need to embrace the Australian style of cricket – hard-nosed, in-your-face, not-giving-an-inch type of cricket … that, in my opinion, is what's necessary. I think we're leaving it hugely to chance, in terms of our preparation."

Later it emerges that England knocked back the opportunity to play Australia A in a lead-up match to the Ashes, potentially at the MCG, while after their two-day capitulation in Perth, the visitors opt not to play a pink-ball match in Canberra before the day-night Test in Brisbane.

It means wicketkeeper Jamie Smith goes to the Gabba having never played a pink-ball match at any level. The 25-year-old, compared to Adam Gilchrist for his aggressive batting and clean hitting, scores 0 and 4 in the second Test, and drops a regulation catch to give Travis Head an early life in a crucial 77-run opening stand for the hosts.

October 28.

"The conditions are going to be different here in Australia, aren't they?"

Even Steve Smith is willing to offer a word of caution for England's batting group. As he readies himself for a Sheffield Shield match in Brisbane, Smith articulates the challenges that might accompany the visiting batters when swapping tailormade Bazball pitches in the UK for testing Australian ones.

"I think the last three or four years (in Australia) have probably been as challenging for batters as we have seen for a long time, particularly the top order," Smith added.

"So in those conditions (Australia's) bowlers are very experienced and very good, and it's going to make it hard work for the ­batters.

"It is going to be tricky for all batters, but when you are trying to get after it, it's going to be ­exceptionally hard."

Later, data from PitchViz, detailed in The Sydney Morning Herald, backs up Smith's assertion and underlines the difference in conditions between the two countries in relation to fast bowling.

"The pitches here are the bounciest, quickest and second-most inconsistent," the report from November 20 read. "Since 2020, Australia have the second-fullest average length – 6.22 metres – needed to clip the top of the stumps, about 35cm fuller than in England."

England do not give themselves a chance to acclimatise to these foreign conditions, and a Perth implosion awaits. 

November 5.

A little over a week later, another veteran Australian issues a word of caution for an England attack that is being billed as the fastest and most fearsome to hit these shores.

"It goes unspoken a bit, or it's underrated, how the firmness of wickets here are completely different to England," Mitchell Starc tells AAP.

"Physically, bowling in England is a lot easier. You have the Dukes ball that moves around for 80 overs and does more off the seam. The wickets are softer under foot.

"You come to Australia and at times it's like bowling on (concrete). It's rock hard, your body feels it a lot more. It takes a little bit to get used to, it takes a bit of hardening to get through five Tests here."

England's minimal preparation does not allow for their quicks to become accustomed to the hard surfaces Starc is talking about. Nor do they appear match hardened; leading into the Ashes, Mark Wood, Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes and Brydon Carse have not bowled a ball in first-class cricket since August.

After the first Test, Mark Wood is ruled out with injury for the series. After the second, Gus Atkinson – having taken three wickets at 78 while going at 4.37 runs per over – is axed for Josh Tongue.

After a five-wicket haul on the opening day of the series, Stokes takes 4-210 from 52 overs across five innings, failing to bowl on the third afternoon in Adelaide after being, according to England bowling coach Jeetan Patel, "knackered" after batting in hot conditions.

Carse has taken a respectable 14 wickets at 29.28 but has leaked runs at more than five per over.

And for all the talk of England's 150kph-plus offerings, it is rarely seen. Archer, England's best and most economical bowler (3.05 RPO), is outstanding in the first innings in Adelaide, collecting 5-53.

He ratchets up the speed intermittently through the series but draws criticism for his habit of gently warming into a spell – a fact that stands in sharp contrast to Starc's propensity for hitting top pace from his very first delivery.

"They are going to have the depth to bowl really fast, (but) have they got the depth on firmer surfaces with a Kookaburra ball that doesn't do the same for as long as a Dukes ball?" Starc had asked. "That's conditions based as well."

November 7.

Michael Vaughan, arguably England's best batter in Australia this century, delivers some sage advice for the Bazballers.

"You can't just play the aggressive way in Australia all the time – you have to go up and down in the gears," Vaughan told the Following On podcast. "Yes, you have that mindset of wanting to be aggressive, but if you're facing (Josh) Hazlewood and (Mitchell) Starc … (with) the bigger boundaries, you've got be very wary.

"I haven’t seen a team play that way and win in Australia. I’ve seen many teams earn the right to play that way around the 30th over mark to the 80th over mark when the ball is a bit softer.

"It might be that England have to play a bit traditionally for the first 20 overs to earn the right to be there when the ball is softer, the pitch is playing (better).

"If they can do that, and earn the right, they will score quick enough anyway. My concern is with the ball moving around, they go too hard, too soon and you lose five or six wickets very quickly."

England fail to earn that right.

Across the first three Tests, they lose at least three wickets inside their first 30 overs in all six innings, and their average wickets lost at that point is 4.67. In other words, much of Australia's hard work is done inside the first 30 overs.

November 8.

A day later, another batting great – this time an Australian – weighs in. Greg Chappell raises a question of England's batting approach, and makes a prediction.

"Bazball can look impressive, but it can also appear to be an excuse for not doing the tough work required to win Test matches," Chappell wrote for Nine Entertainment Co.

"We would all like to stand and deliver and play the pretty shots, but will that method succeed against a disciplined and tremendously skilful attack?

"Their incendiary style might work on the small grounds in England on pitches prepared to be as flat as one-day pitches, but it won't be as easy to throw caution to the wind on the bigger grounds and more bowler-friendly pitches here.

"Batsmen will be (important) only insofar as they withstand the barrage. This Ashes, like its forebears, will be decided by the superior fast bowling side."

Six weeks later, Chappell's words prove prophetic.

After two Tests, the wicket hauls for the two fast-bowling groups reads: Australia 39, England 23.

And across three Tests, England's batting improves as they tone down their cavalier approach: from Brisbane to Adelaide, their average individual score of 16.80 almost doubles to 31.90, while at the same time their run rate drops from 4.97 to 3.35.

November 11.

Ten days out from the first Test, there is a familiar tune being hummed by England batting coach Marcus Trescothick.

"The style of cricket we play is to try and put the bowlers under pressure,” Trescothick told reporters in Perth. "Playing on bouncy pitches, where the ball comes onto the bat nicely, is something we always talk about trying to get back at home. It suits our style of play, which we're happy with.

"Definitely, the pitches have generally evolved in the last few years in Australia but you still expect them to be quick and bouncy and maybe have a bit more in it for the bowlers compared to years gone by."

What isn't present from Trescothick is any discussion around "absorbing pressure" – one of the themes England captain Ben Stokes will later insist is a fundamental pillar of Bazball when he speaks with media following the second Test loss in Brisbane.

A week earlier, Brendon McCullum notes the improvements required by England in the one-day format after they lose in New Zealand, but at the same time he seems quietly confident they are well placed to prosper in the Ashes.

"I think when we do come across the trickier conditions in Australia and Test cricket," he says, "we have a pretty good understanding of how we're going to go about it."

A fortnight later, they have been completely dismantled in Perth, twice being bowled out inside 35 overs to go one-nil down in the series.

November 15.

Amid all the talk about the fast-bowling cartels, Tim Nielsen, the former head coach who presided over Australia's most recent home Ashes defeat, makes a different observation.

"(England) were an excellent team and they outplayed us in that (2010-11) series," Nielsen said. "But the biggest difference I felt from that series was the impact and quality (off-spinner Graeme) Swann had for them.

"I think the biggest difference in this series will be Nathan Lyon and their lack of spin in Australian conditions; (England's) lack of experience and relative quality in the spin department compared to what Lyon can offer is going to be a huge difference."

Pace dominates the opening two Tests – Lyon is even controversially omitted for the day-night match in Brisbane – before the veteran off-spinner comes into his own in Adelaide, dismissing five of England's top six batters on a helpful surface.

In contrast, England allrounder Will Jacks acts as another pressure release valve for the Aussie batters; he takes four wickets at a strike-rate of 75.75 while conceding almost five runs per over.

November 20.

Former Australia Test paceman Damien Fleming, the self-described 'Bowlologist', forecasts the likelihood of a number of England batters, led by Zak Crawley, to be tempted to drive on the up well outside their off stump.

"In our conditions, with the extra grass, pace and bounce, I'd be leaving cover open," Fleming says on Seven. "If (Zak) Crawley wants to go into one of his big cover drives, even if he gets a couple in the middle, the odds of him nicking behind or an inside edge are massive."

Two days later, Crawley is lamenting a pair – one nick from an attempted drive, one caught and bowled from a mistimed drive, both from Starc – and a number of England batters have been dismissed after aiming ambitious drives early in their innings.

Perhaps the most surprising offender is Root. After a first-innings duck, England's batting rock lashes at a teaser from Starc and drags on for eight.

In two matches without his tormentors Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood, the England No.4 is expected to prosper. He does exactly that in the first innings of the second Test in Brisbane, scoring an excellent hundred, but in three innings besides, he manages just 23 runs.

When Cummins returns for Adelaide, normal service is resumed: England's main man contributes just 19 and 39, nicking off twice in just 24 balls from Cummins.

Former Australia bat Mike Hussey had detailed the plan he expected would be put in place for Root in the build-up to the series.

"He loves to play late, run the ball down to third man, and punch off the back foot, which in England you can get away with," Hussey wrote for Nine Entertainment Co.

"Plan A is to attack his stumps early and challenge his defence, then once he gets in, bring your lengths back a bit and get him feeling for the ball, whether that's on the front or back foot.

"It's the Virat Kohli plan – a fourth or fifth stump but no wider; he's strong square of the wicket."

December 7.

"Australia is not for weak men … A dressing room that I am captain of is not a place for weak men either. We need to dig deep. I need to dig deep."

We didn't know it at the time, but with these comments in his post-Gabba Test press conference, Stokes effectively shelves Bazball in this Ashes series. The left-hander had gone about matters vastly differently with his stone-walling 50 from 152 balls in England's second innings in Brisbane, but whether that was a one-off, circumstantial effort was unclear.

Then he repeated the performance in Adelaide, going on to make a fighting 83 from 192 balls in the first innings. After three years of planning for shock and awe, there was a sense that the change represented a desperate, suddenly directionless skipper.

Perhaps that shift in tactics is best underlined by a quote from Stokes himself. Back in 2023, he was asked whether a young Alastair Cook – then England's highest Test runs scorer, though not noted for his aggressive stroke-play – would be likely to make the current Test side.

"In this day and age and while I'm captain and 'Baz' (Brendon McCullum) is coach that is not something we’re looking for," Stokes was reported as saying in UK newspaper The Telegraph. "Right here and now it's pretty obvious the sort of players we want and how they can get noticed."

Across the first three Tests, Stokes – whose series strike-rate of 37.50 to that point was ironically considerably slower than Cook's career mark in Australia (49.39) – would doubtless have benefited from an opener of the class of the former skipper, who piled on a stunning 766 runs during England's successful 2010-11 Ashes tour.

December 20.

With England 6-207 at the end of day four and staring at an Ashes series defeat inside 11 days, Crawley fronts the press in Adelaide.

"I think they've bowled very well … it's very hard to bat the way that we have in the past, perhaps," he said.

"(Australia) have to get credit for that … It's just an attritional style of cricket over here, and they don't allow it; it's not as easy to score quickly out here."

If only someone had warned them.

2025-26 NRMA Insurance Men's Ashes

First Test: Australia won by eight wickets

Second Test: Australia won by eight wickets

Third Test: Australia won by 82 runs

Fourth Test: December 26-30: MCG, Melbourne, 10:30am AEDT

Fifth Test: January 4-8: SCG, Sydney, 10:30am AEDT

Australia squad (third Test only): Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster

England squad: Ben Stokes (c), Harry Brook (vc), Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Matthew Fisher, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith (wk), Josh Tongue