Is spin bowling under threat in cricket's fast-paced new world?

Among the many legacies of Shane Warne, the most enduring as it pertained to his art form was his favourite quote regarding Test pitches: 'If it seams, it will spin'.

After 20 wickets fell on the first day of (men's) Ashes cricket at Warne's old home ground since the 708-wicket great's death nearly four years ago, it showed a new mantra has been spun; if it seams, who needs spin?

That view, essentially put forth by both teams after neither picked a frontline spinner on a grassy MCG wicket, was vindicated as the rivals took turns in front of a record Test crowd to bowl each other out.

Not only were all of day one's wickets snapped up like Boxing Day bargains by the seamers, so too were all 75.1 overs sent down by the pacemen. The mitigating circumstances were perfect fast-bowling weather and a drop-in pitch said to covered by a centimetre of grass.

Alyssa Healy, who helped spearhead the most recent Ashes Test victory by an Australian side at this venue when her women toppled England by 122 runs earlier this year, had the most revealing insight on this latest MCG surface.

"l rubbed my hand on the side of the wicket this morning and you can actually feel the grass lift up," Healy told Fox Cricket of her pre-play pitch inspection.

Certainly, Healy's captaincy counterpart Steve Smith had made the same read a day prior when he revealed the surface was so "furry" that Australia would have considered playing four specialist pacemen even if Nathan Lyon had not undergone hamstring surgery earlier in the week.

It largely followed the advice of curator Matt Page, whose achievement in transforming the bowlers' graveyard he inherited into a sportier track has been achieved through providing more seam-friendly conditions.

Indeed, Lyon's record at the MCG – his 50 Test wickets here at 31.58 are topped only by Warne's 56 at 22.91 – goes against the grain. The only other spinners to have played at the 'G more than three times this century and hold a bowling average under 40 are Stuart MacGill, Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.

Given Lyon's absence and the conditions presented to Australia this week, their star offie's efforts in sending down almost 50 overs in last summer's MCG epic against India, taking two of the game’s last-session wickets to clinch a famous victory, were all but irrelevant.

The case for Todd Murphy, called into replace Lyon in Australia’s squad, to play a similar role here was not helped by the Victorian having played just three first-class matches at the state's premier sporting venue, albeit for a tidy return of six wickets at 25.

Presented with a call between an inexperienced spinner or an extra paceman to complement a Mitchell Starc-Scott Boland-Michael Neser trio ideally suited to the green-top, selectors made the obvious call. The selection of Jhye Richardson was a free swing; he bowled four overs on day one and might not need to send too many more.

It marked the third time in five Tests that Australia have gone with an all-seam attack – and it fits into a wider trend that sees Lyon's important haul of 5-147 in last week's Adelaide Test appear increasingly as an outlier on Australian Test pitches.

It underlines an uncomfortable truth; when Lyon retires at some point in the coming years, the temptation for Australia to omit their spinner at home will only grow.

If this ongoing match continues at its frenetic pace over the weekend, there is every chance it will be the first completed Test in Australia that does not see a single over of spin bowled.

In also feeds into an uncomfortable narrative that has this summer on track to feature the fewest overs of spin this century. The below graph is colour-coded to highlight the different recent eras of slow bowling Down Under; the dark green represents the final Warne (and Stuart MacGill) years, the yellow are the 'limbo' seasons, while the blue shows the Lyon era.

The red bar at the end only includes the 'per Test' figures for the first three Tests of this series. It is certain to shrink further by the end of this penultimate match of the summer.

The effectiveness of pace over spin has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Faced with bowlers who have gamed the wobble-seam delivery on helpful wickets, batters have been emboldened to elevate their appetite for risk knowing a ball with their name on it is just around the corner. Thereby speeding Tests up in their early stages, and making it less likely spinners will be required later in the match.

That modern way of batting was no better summed up by Harry Brook's helter-skelter innings on day one.

Brook's method, sure to be criticised by traditionalists who would have been mortified to watch him charge Starc first ball attempting (unsuccessfully) to hit him over long off for six, has delivered the highest score of the match so far.

His 41, belted in less than an hour at the crease during which time he proceeded to hit Starc into the Members' Stand for one of two sixes, might well have justified the approach.

Especially given he was eventually dismissed playing a defensive shot off the metronomic Boland.

"I think you have to change the way you approach it, because bowlers are so good at just holding their length nowadays," said Michael Neser, who added four wickets with the ball after posting 35 with the bat – presently the game's second highest individual score.

"You have to actually put pressure back on them as a batter. I know it can look streaky at times. But, at times, the only way to score is to be brave and come at them.

"You saw they did it in stages, but thankfully we were good enough to just hold our length and make the breakthroughs at the right time."

If Australia continue to prosper holding a dim view of spin in a post-Lyon future, it may well follow that visiting teams will keep following suit.

England of course have not picked a specialist spinner through any of the first four Tests. Will Jacks, whose off-breaks were described by the tourists' spin coach Jeetan Patel as the allrounder's secondary skill, has gotten the nod after Perth instead.

The tall off-spin bowler Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes had long identified as being important for this tour, Shoaib Bashir, has been sidelined amid suggestions he has become 'unselectable'.

Indeed if Murphy was not picked to play here after taking 3-64 from 21 overs in a Australia A-England Lions match in Brisbane earlier this month while Bashir returned 0-115 from 25 overs, what hope did the latter have?

The sight of a forlorn Bashir taking a photo on his phone of the worn Adelaide Oval pitch as he departed the ground after England went down 0-3 in the series was illustrative in more ways than one.

2025-26 NRMA Insurance Men's Ashes

First Test: Australia won by eight wickets

Second Test: Australia won by eight wickets

Third Test: Australia won by 82 runs

Fourth Test: December 26-30: MCG, Melbourne, 10:30am AEDT

Fifth Test: January 4-8: SCG, Sydney, 10:30am AEDT

Australia squad (fourth Test only): Steve Smith (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster

England squad: Ben Stokes (c), Harry Brook (vc), Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Matthew Fisher, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith (wk), Josh Tongue