Why Australia's World Cup tilt hinges on 'luck of the Irish'

A little more than 18 months ago, Australia's T20 side watched an Afghanistan-Bangladesh match being played less than 100 kilometres south of their Saint Lucia hotel on the neighbouring island of Saint Vincent.

The likes of Mitch Marsh and Adam Zampa could only laugh as the Afghans, with a little help from Gulbadin Naib's 'rainstring' injury, triumphed to seal their group-stage exit.

Marsh's men have yet again put their destiny in the hands of a rival. This time, they will be cheering on Ireland tonight (12:30am Wednesday AEDT) as they attempt to defeat a resurgent Zimbabwe on the same Kandy pitch Sri Lanka gave the Aussies a touch up on.

An Australian team has surely never held more interest in a game between two teams ranked outside the ICC's top 10.

Zimbabwe are in the midst of a momentous tournament having given Australia one of their biggest ever World Cup shocks last week. It is some turnaround for a team that failed to qualify for that 2024 Caribbean event after losing to Namibia and Uganda.  

"We never left earth anyway, because we know this is just part of that journey that we came on," captain Sikandar Raza said when asked if his team had come down from the high of their 23-run win over Australia in Colombo.

"Those victories that we have had so far will count for nothing, especially if there is a slip-up now. Everybody remains very focused.

"The beauty of these ICC events are that every game you practically feel is a knockout game. I think it's great for our own mental toughness and growth as well, how well we handle our own expectations rather than what the world wants from us.

"ICC events change lives in every way, whether that is recognition, whether that is fame, whether that is financial, respect … you get a lot of recognition and everything that comes with it."

Another triumph for the 11th-ranked Chevrons, either against Ireland (12th) or in their final Group B game against Sri Lanka, will knock Australia out of the tournament, rendering the latter's clash with Oman (on Saturday morning 12:30am AEDT) a dead rubber.

But if Zimbabwe loses both matches, Australia could sneak through on net run rate (NRR) if they thump Oman and hope Ireland do not beat Zimbabwe by too great a margin.

In that scenario, Ireland, Zimbabwe and Australia would all be level on four points.

Zimbabwe and Ireland have only played each other once at a T20 World Cup, all the way back in the Bangladesh-hosted 2014 tournament when a William Porterfield-skippered outfit won on the last ball of a group match in Sylhet. From 16 completed T20Is, the two sides have won eight apiece.

Ireland have not claimed a major World Cup scalp since 2022 when they pulled off an upset in a rain-affected match at the MCG against England. A loss to Canada during the ensuing 2024 tournament was a further blow to their bid to rise above 'also-rans' status.

A comfortable 96-run win over Oman helped, but Ireland must now prove they can overcome better opposition. Across their opening two matches against Australia and Sri Lanka, they dropped 10 catches.

Despite being a full (Test-playing) member of the ICC, paceman Mark Adair said this week: "We get called an Associate every other day by someone and we always feel like there's a need to justify ourselves.

"I personally don't think that's the case but some good performances against some big teams … would help us but I think the last game showed us that we've got what it takes."

In the Caribbean in 2024, some of the Australians gathered to watch the Afghanistan-Bangladesh game on a screen in a communal space. Others watched it unfold in their own rooms. Australia will discover their fate in this tournament in a similar way.

"I dare say that we'll all be watching it," Marsh said. "Whether or not it's together, we'll wait and see. But what do you say – the luck of the Irish, eh?"

2026 ICC Men's T20 World Cup

Australia squad: Mitch Marsh (c), Xavier Bartlett, Cooper Connolly, Tim David, Ben Dwarshuis, Cameron Green, Nathan Ellis, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith, Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa. Travelling reserve: Sean Abbott

Australia's Group Stage fixtures

February 11: beat Ireland by 67 runs

February 13: lost to Zimbabwe by 23 runs

February 16: lost to Sri Lanka by eight wickets

February 20: v Oman, Pallekele International Stadium, Kandy (Feb 21, 12:30am AEDT)

Click here for the full tournament schedule

All matches will be broadcast on Amazon's Prime Video