World Test Championship run home: Race on for the top two

With just over six months remaining in the round-robin phase of the World Test Championship cycle, the race is heating up to secure the two spots in the 2027 final.

Reigning champions South Africa and 2025 runners-up Australia again occupy the top of the table with 33 Tests to come to decide who will play off for the WTC mace at The Oval in London from June 9-13 next year.

Three of the past four WTC finalists have qualified with a points percentage of 66.67 or higher, with India's 58.8 to reach the 2023 decider the lowest of the tournament's three editions to date.

With ladder-leaders Australia out in front with a points percentage of 80, and the Proteas second on 75, it appears a percentage in the mid-60s will again be required to reach the final.

1. Australia (96 points, 80%)

Series to come

October: Three Tests v South Africa (away)

 

December-January: Four Tests v New Zealand (home)

 

January-March: Five Tests v India (away)

Pat Cummins' side are sitting pretty at the top of the standings with just two losses from their 10 matches so far, however, they have their two toughest series to come – away to both South Africa and India.

To maintain a points percentage above 65, Australia will need to reach a total of 172 points in this cycle, which requires at least another six wins and a draw from their remaining 12 Tests.

Series victories against the Proteas and New Zealand would likely give them five of those six wins, leaving an easier task for their five-match tour of India early next year where Australia have only won two of their past 18 Tests.

2. South Africa (36 points, 75%)

Series to come

October: Three Tests v Australia (home)

 

November: Two Tests v Bangladesh (home)

 

December-January: Three Tests v England (home)

 

February-March: Two Tests v Sri Lanka (away)

The defending champions have played just four Tests in this cycle – the fewest of any team – but have won three of them to sit second in the standings behind Australia, who are their next opponents.

Temba Bavuma's men play their next eight matches at home and, if all goes to plan, could have a top two spot secured before their next away tour, a yet-to-be scheduled two-match series against Sri Lanka in February-March.

If the Proteas reach a total of 110 points in this cycle, they will stay above 65 per cent, which equates to six wins and a draw over their final 10 matches.

3. New Zealand (52 points, 72.22%)

Series to come

November-December: Two Tests v India (home)

 

December-January: Four Tests v Australia (away)

 

February: Two Tests v Sri Lanka (home)

 

March: Two Tests v Pakistan (away)

Victories over West Indies (2-0) and England (2-1) has the inaugural WTC champions well placed to reach the final again for the first time since that 2021 triumph. However, tough assignments await this summer when they host India before heading across the Tasman for four Tests against Australia, who they haven't beaten since 2011.

New Zealand's percentage will be just shy of 65 with six wins from their remaining 10 Tests, with another draw on top of that pushing them above the threshold. And beating India at home this summer could well see Tom Latham's side knock the subcontinent powerhouse out of the running.

4. Bangladesh (40 points, 55.56%)

Series to come

October-November: Two Tests v West Indies (home)

 

November: Two Tests v South Africa (away)

 

February: Two Tests v England (home)

Three WTC wins on the bounce, which included a historic Test triumph on Australian soil, has Bangladesh well and truly in the running to reach the final for the first time. Sweep their next opponents, the eighth-placed Windies, and the Tigers' points percentage will be back above 65.

To keep it there, Najmul Shanto's men need to win five of their remaining six Tests, which means also beating South Africa and England, while four wins and a draw would give them a percentage just shy of 64.

They are undefeated at home in this cycle, which is a boost to their chances of beating West Indies and England.

5. India (68 points, 51.52%)

Series to come

November-December: Two Tests v New Zealand (away)

 

January-March: Five Tests v Australia (home)

Last week's draw with Sri Lanka in Colombo cost Shubman Gill's side eight valuable WTC points, which would have lifted them above Bangladesh into fourth spot. With seven Tests to play, India need at least five wins and a draw to lift their points percentage above 60. Six wins would leave India with a percentage just shy of 65.

The positive is they play teams above them, meaning they can reduce the gap to New Zealand and Australia by beating them, but anything less than five wins would leave them relying on other results to even be a chance of qualifying for the final.

6. Sri Lanka (24 points, 33.33%)

Series to come

November: Two Tests v Pakistan (away)

 

February: Two Tests v New Zealand (away)

 

February-March: Two Tests v South Africa (home)

Back-to-back series losses to West Indies and India this year have left Sri Lanka a long way back in the race. With six Tests remaining, the maximum percentage they can achieve is 66.67. Five wins would see them finish on 55.33, which is unlikely to be enough to reach the final.

7. England (50 points, 29.76%)

Series to come

August-September: Two Tests v Pakistan (home)

 

December-January: Three Tests v South Africa (away)

 

February: Two Tests v Bangladesh (away)

England have been penalised 14 points due to slow over-rates in this WTC cycle, compounding series losses to Australia and New Zealand to leave them languishing in the bottom half of the table.

Should they capitalise on their strong position in the second Test at Lord's to beat bottom-placed Pakistan, it will be the side's first series win of the campaign after drawing with India at home last year.

Wins in all seven of their remaining matches will see England finish on 53.17 per cent, which is extremely unlikely to see them qualify for the final.

8. West Indies (30 points, 20.83%)

Series to come

October-November: Two Tests v Bangladesh (away)

West Indies lost seven of eight Tests to begin the current cycle and with just two matches remaining against Bangladesh later this year, the highest points percentage they can finish with is 32.14.

9. Pakistan (16 points, 19.05%)

Series to come

August-September: Two Tests v England (away)

 

November: Two Tests v Sri Lanka (home)

 

March: Two Tests v New Zealand (home)

Pakistan began the cycle by beating defending champions South Africa in Lahore but then went on a four-game losing run. With a series loss in England appearing inevitable, even winning the third Test and sweeping both Sri Lanka and New Zealand at home in their remaining series would only improve their percentage to 48.72.